Sanyal, a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, said policy has not caught up with these numbers
India’s population trajectory is approaching a historical turning point, with national birth rates dropping below the critical replacement threshold. Speaking at the News18 DEFCON 2026 summit, Sanjeev Sanyal, a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, highlighted that the country’s overall Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen to approximately 1.9 to 2.0 children per woman, well beneath the population replacement baseline of 2.1.
The economic advisor warned at the event that demographic policy must urgently shift away from legacy “population control” mindsets. Without strategic adjustments to support family planning and social infrastructure, India risks facing rapid demographic contraction sooner than previous long-term projections anticipated.
Southern and Western States Mirror East Asian Birth Rates
The demographic decline is particularly pronounced across several of India’s largest and most economically prominent states. Regions across Southern and Western India—including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, and Maharashtra—are recording total fertility rates ranging between 1.3 and 1.6 children per woman. These figures closely mirror birth rate metrics observed across parts of Western Europe and East Asia.
While Northern states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh historically maintained higher birth rates, recent sample registration data confirms that fertility levels are steadily declining across those regions as well. The nationwide convergence towards lower birth rates means that India’s total population growth is decelerating faster than previously estimated by global demographic models.
Economic Implications for Labour and Social Security Systems
The rapid transition towards sub-replacement fertility carries major long-term consequences for the national economy. While India currently benefits from a vast working-age population, a sustained drop in birth rates will eventually shrink the entry-level workforce while simultaneously expanding the ageing demographic.
Economic analysts emphasise that the window to harness India’s demographic dividend is narrowing. Policymakers face growing pressure to bolster productivity, enhance skill development, and build sustainable pension and healthcare frameworks before the dependency ratio shifts unfavourably in the coming decades.