India’s exports to China rose nearly 90% year-on-year in November, reaching $2.2 billion, with an overall increase of 33% for the April-November period.
India’s exports to China surged nearly 90% year-on-year in November, reaching $2.2 billion. For the April–November period, exports were up 33% at $12.2 billion. On the surface, the numbers look encouraging—but a new report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) cautions against reading this as a genuine turnaround in India–China trade.
According to GTRI, the growth is driven by a narrow set of products and remains volatile, while imports from China continue to surge, keeping the trade relationship heavily skewed, said a TOI report.
The biggest contributor was naphtha, a petrochemical feedstock. Exports of naphtha jumped 172% between April and October, with some individual months seeing spikes of over 500%, as Chinese demand rose sharply.
Electronics also saw unusual jumps: printed circuit board exports shot up 8,577% in October, while mobile phone components rose 82%. In contrast, traditional exports such as iron ore and shrimp either declined or grew only marginally.
GTRI describes the trend as one of “sharp contrasts”, noting that India’s exports to China tend to swing wildly based on Chinese demand cycles, pricing shifts, and policy changes—rather than reflecting sustained competitiveness or diversification from India.
Imports, meanwhile, underline the deeper concern. Nearly 80% of India’s imports from China are concentrated in four categories—electronics ($38 billion from January to October), machinery ($26 billion), chemicals, and plastics. High-dependence items like smartphones, laptops, batteries, and solar cells dominate, making substitution difficult in the short term.
Looking at the full year, GTRI estimates India’s exports to China at about $17.5 billion, still well below the $23 billion peak in 2021. Imports are projected at around $123.5 billion, implying a record trade deficit of roughly $106 billion by Indian estimates. Chinese data suggests the gap could be even wider, closer to $115 billion.
The report also flags data mismatches, with India recording lower imports than what China reports as exports—raising concerns about possible under-invoicing to evade duties.
