Aviation experts have mapped out what a worst case scenario could look like
MILLIONS of travelers could see Thanksgiving chaos that has never been seen before if the government shutdown continues, aviation experts have warned.
The government shutdown, which is in its fifth week, has seen security agents and air traffic controllers gone unpaid.
Thousands of flights have already been delayed and there are fears there is no end in sight to the shutdown.
The shutdown, which could become the longest on the record, faces the risk of stretching into the Thanksgiving holiday, threatening to upend travel plans for Americans wanting to spend time with their families.
Fears are mounting that airport terminals could become clogged, passengers could face lengthy waits in security, and planes could end up being grounded.
Aviation expert Sheldon Jacobson has warned the disruption that could play out has not been seen before in living memory.
“Thanksgiving would take us seven weeks [since the shutdown began]. This would be unprecedented,” he said.
“This would be untested water. We have never traveled here before. We don’t know what’s going to happen.”
If the shutdown continues into Thanksgiving, it would be the longest on record.
The longest government shutdown stands at 35 days, which started on December 22, 2018, and didn’t end until January 25, 2019.
Jacobson warned it’s a real possibility that air traffic controllers or TSA agents could decide to call out sick en masse.
And, it could force airport bosses to close down security lanes, leading to disgruntled passengers.
Jacobson mapped out a breaking point scenario, which would involve travelers facing waits of between 60 and 90 minutes in security lines.
A so-called breaking point would see scores of flights canceled – between 25% and 30% – and the weather not playing an impact.
He warned domestic routes could be at risk if there are only a limited number of air traffic controllers to manage air space.
“International flights can’t simply be canceled in midair,” he said.
“They have to land. That, in fact, becomes a hard constraint.
“That means if there’s a limited amount of airspace that can be managed by the air traffic controllers, domestic flights will end up getting affected much more than the international ones.”
Even though domestic flights could be plunged into jeopardy, Jacobson doesn’t think airports will be forced to shut up shop – which would see travel plans upended.
“I don’t see that happening except in very extenuating situations but slowdowns can certainly occur,” he said.
Aviation data from Cirium released earlier this month suggests travelers are making bookings in record numbers.
Thanksgiving travel bookings are 2% up compared to last year.
Airline chiefs also echoed the sentiment.
“The entire fourth quarter, the fall break, Thanksgiving, Christmas, they’re all likely to set records with strong demand,” Scott Kirby, the United Airlines CEO, told CBS News.
This would be untested water. We have never traveled here before
Sheldon Jacobson, aviation expert
Politicians and aviation experts have also alluded to worst case scenarios that could unfold as millions flock to the airport for the holidays.
Matthew Buckley, a former American Airlines pilot, told The New York Post that travel chaos could be ugly.
“Airports will be flooded with flight cancellations and delays amid the busiest time to travel all year, and the list goes on and on,” Tom Emmer, the House Majority Whip, said.
Travelers have been warned that it’s not guaranteed that flights will be on time.
“I can’t guarantee you that your flight will be on time,” Sean Duffy, the Transportation Secretary, warned.
“I can’t guarantee you that your flight’s not going to be canceled.”
Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, swiftly blamed the Democrats over their alleged role in allowing the shutdown to continue.
“We fear there will be significant flight delays, disruptions and cancellations in major airports across the country this holiday season,” she said.
“If Democrats continue to shut down the government, they will also be shutting down American air travel.”
House speaker Mike Johnson said football fans should blame the Democratic Party if any travel chaos during Thanksgiving means they cannot watch their football team.
Airlines are also calling for the shutdown to end.
“A prolonged shutdown will lead to more delays and cancellations — and the American people, especially during the busy holiday season, deserve better,” American Airlines has warned.
And, union leaders at the National Air Traffic Controllers Association have called for the end of the shutdown.
In 2024, the American Automobile Association projected 79.9 million travelers would head to locations at least 50 miles away over the Thanksgiving period.
Jacobson revealed flexibility shown by passengers can help reduce the strain on the system.
Source: https://www.the-sun.com/travel/15408697/thanksgiving-travel-2025-government-shutdown/