ULTRA-budget airlines attracting travelers with cheap deals are on shaky ground as carriers risk following Spirit, a top aviation expert has warned.
Spirit has been part of the American aviation scene since 1964, but its future is uncertain after bosses filed for bankruptcy.
The carrier’s filing marked the second time in its history that it had launched bankruptcy proceedings.
Chiefs have rushed to discontinue services and cut costs by furloughing pilots in a bid to avoid a more perilous outcome.
But, William Swelbar, a top aviation expert, has warned the plight Spirit is facing is part of a much broader trend, particularly within the ultra low-cost sector.
The six airlines that make up this group include Allegiant, Avelo, Breeze, Frontier, Spirit, and Sun Country.
And, he speculated which airline could encounter problems in the future.
“The ultra-low cost carrier sector is on shaky ground,” he told The U.S. Sun.
“I expect those six airlines [in the sector] will probably be smaller at the end of ‘26 than they will be at the end of ‘25.
“There’s no panacea out there right now. It’s a tough marketplace.”
He suggested Frontier could be the next airline to be at risk.
And, this is despite the recent expansion by bosses.
“Frontier are the next biggest,” he said.
“Then you have the rest of the sector.
“Allegiant knows its business very well. They stay in their lane, they know who they are, and they’re not trying to be more.”
He alluded to how airlines such as Breeze and Avelo are trying to compete within the ultra-low cost market.
“Breeze is growing very, very aggressively, but it’s too early to judge,” he said.
“Avelo, the other new entrant, is being fairly measured in how it grows.”
Spirit has not been in profit since 2019 and is set to make an $804 million loss this year.
This is despite the airline’s rapid expansion post-Covid.
Whereas, Frontier bosses have unveiled a slew of new routes in recent months.
A dozen new routes from US cities to New Orleans will start in February 2026.
Frontier will offer a daily route between Las Vegas and New Orleans, and Chicago and New Orleans.
Services connecting the Louisiana city with destinations such as Atlanta, Detroit, Houston, and Orlando are also being increased.
The huge expansion coincides with Mardi Gras celebrations.
“There’s no panacea out there right now.
And, Swelbar, of the Swelbar-Zhong Consultancy, shed light on why Spirit started to encounter financial difficulties.
“Spirit was the one that made the best that low costs were forever, and if I’m the low-cost producer, I can win when I compete with the larger airlines in large markets,” he said.
“Now, we know that the cost equation has been flipped on its head.
“Spirit made a bet and at some point, competition is going to discipline you – just like you were discipling the competition.
“And now, the consumer seems to be saying they want more in the air travel experience.”
Spirit has not yet fallen into the abyss, but Swelbar warned it’s not guaranteed they will emerge from bankruptcy.
“Bankruptcy is complicated,” he admitted.
“Right now, the company has the exclusive right to file a plan of reorganization, but at some point, you can lose that exclusive right.
“Somebody else can take control of the situation, so I think they’re still vulnerable to that.”
Swelbar warned that cost-cutting measures doesn’t always lead to a profitable future.
“Spirit cannot shrink its way to profitability,” he said.
Source : https://www.the-sun.com/travel/15439814/low-cost-airlines-future-spirit-bankruptcy/