Over 100 have been killed and at least 750 are missing in Nepal after floods triggered by an avalanche in Tibet. The devastation has made experts raise a red flag over the 60,000-MW dam that China is building in the high seismic zone in Medog county, close to the border with Arunachal Pradesh.
It’s young and growing, and restless too. And once in a while, it doesn’t stop from showing its fury. The Himalayas are the world’s most seismically active mountain range, and a flood resulting from an earthquake-triggered avalanche has killed over 100 people on the Nepal-Tibet border, with hundreds more unaccounted for. The devastation from the unstoppable wall of flowing water also made experts caution about a monster dam that China is building just next to the border with India.
The 60,000-megawatt (MW) Medog Dam that China is building on the Yarlung Tsangpo, which becomes the Brahmaputra in India, is near Arunachal Pradesh. The dam, which Beijing is looking to operationalise by 2033, is located in China-occupied Tibet Autonomous Region’s (TAR’s) Medog or Medong. This is a zone that is prone to earthquakes, and such a massive dam has therefore been referred to as a “water bomb” by experts.
Houses, roads and power projects were swept away in Nepal, while officials in Tibet said they feared “major casualties” from the flood triggered by the avalanche in the TAR on Wednesday. The deluge of muddy water swept down from an estimated nearly 2,000 metres (6,560 feet) above sea level.
At least 341 foreign travellers, including more than 100 Indians, are missing. Most of them are Kailash Mansarovar pilgrims.
Nepal’s Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal told Parliament on Wednesday that initial reports suggested that an earthquake could have triggered an avalanche and caused the floods in the Bhote Koshi and Trishuli river systems.
Even a study by geologists affiliated with China’s state-run geological survey had in July found that the under-construction Medog Hydropower Station on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet sits atop an active fault line.
“The Himalayas are the world’s most seismically active major mountain range, with a record of triggering devastating earthquakes. How even a moderate seismic event can trigger massive cascading effects was illustrated today when a magnitude 4.4 quake along the Tibet-Nepal border unleashed a disaster, with flash floods washing away Nepali villages,” wrote strategic expert Brahma Chellaney on X.
Reports also suggested that an ice avalanche could have triggered the deadly cascade. “A chunk of ice with a width of about 2,000 feet snapped cleanly off the glacier,” The New York Times reported, quoting geologist Daniel Shugar.
Though it was too early to confirm the trigger, the devastation in Nepal made experts issue a stern warning over the mega-Medog Dam.
China has been building settlements and infrastructure projects in eco-sensitive border areas.
“This [the Nepal disaster] will renew global attention on China’s folly in persisting with the construction of the world’s largest dam in the middle of the Himalayan seismic zone,” said Chellaney.
“The project, located next to the Indo-Tibetan border, is a water bomb in the making, which could drown India’s northeast and wreak havoc farther downstream in Bangladesh,” he added.
Former Indian ambassador and foreign affairs commentator Rajiv Dogra too warned the risk of a “much bigger devastation” to India’s northeast because of the Chinese dam.
“A much bigger devastation could strike India’s North-East if China goes to complete its 60,000 MW monster dam on Brahmaputra in seismologically sensitive zone,” wrote Dogra on X.
CONCERNS RAISED BY CHINESE EXPERTS OVER MEDOG DAM’S STRUCTURAL SAFETY
China began the construction of what is set to become the world’s largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo river in Tibet, triggering concerns in India over water security, flooding, ecology and the future of communities living downstream.
The project, also known as the Motuo Hydropower Station, is estimated to cost around $167 billion. Once completed, the Medog Dam will surpass China’s Three Gorges Dam, which is the world’s largest, to become the largest hydroelectric project in size and could generate roughly three times as much electricity, according to the Sydney-based think tank, Lowy Institute.
Fresh concerns over the structural safety of the Medog Dam were raised in July after the study by geologists affiliated with China’s state-run geological survey.
According to a report by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), citing a paper published in Mandarin in the journal Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology under the supervision of the state-owned China Geological Survey, researchers identified the active Paizhen Fault directly beneath the Medog Dam site on the Yarlung Tsangpo.
WHY IS INDIA CONCERNED OVER CHINESE DAM ON YARLUNG TSANGPO?
The Yarlung Tsangpo flows from Tibet into Arunachal Pradesh, where it is known as the Siang, before becoming the Brahmaputra as it moves through Assam and eventually enters Bangladesh.
The Medog Dam that China is building is located in one of the most dramatic sections of the Yarlung Tsangpo, where the river makes a huge U-turn around Mount Namcha Barwa of Tibet. The river descends sharply through a deep canyon, creating enormous potential for hydropower generation. China plans to develop five cascading hydropower stations in the region.
The sheer scale and location of the project have raised concerns in India because China controls the upper reaches of a river that is crucial to communities, agriculture and ecosystems downstream.
A concern for India is China’s ability to influence the flow of the Brahmaputra once the dam is fully constructed. Though the Brahmaputra gets most of the water from monsoon-fed tributaries in India, it is still a lower-riparian country. Any major alteration in the volume or timing of water released from Tibet could potentially affect Arunachal Pradesh and Assam.