Definitive conclusions will only emerge from detailed analysis that includes cockpit voice recordings and telemetry data from the black box.
New video emerged of the final moments of VT-SSK, the Learjet 45 business jet that crashed in Baramati on Wednesday, claiming the lives of Maharashtra’s deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar and four others on board, prompting experts to raise the possibility of an aerodynamic stall or a last-moment manoeuvre during what was the eight-seater plane’s second landing attempt.
To be sure, definitive conclusions will only emerge from detailed analysis that includes cockpit voice recordings and telemetry data from the black box, which was recovered from the wreckage on Thursday.
CCTV footage appears to show VT-SSK’s left wing dropping suddenly moments before impact. In the seconds-long video, the Learjet 45 is seen nearly snapping to one side midair before crashing in a ball of flames — a visual that experts said gave rise to three possibilities: an aerodynamic stall, a hard banking too close to ground, or an engine failure.
The first scenario, especially in such aircraft that have their engines mounted on the tail instead of the wings like in the case of a large jetliner, manifests in what is called an asymmetric aerodynamic stall. One wing loses lift before the other during slow-speed flight, creating “an asymmetric aerodynamic stall, resulting in a rapid roll and impact with the ground”, language the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) used in the investigation of a fatal Bombardier Challenger 605 crash during a circling approach in California in 2021. Like the Learjet 45, the Challenger 605 has its engines mounted in the tail section.
The Learjet too had attempted one approach and executed a go-around before the fatal second attempt. Investigators will examine whether pilots got too slow while manoeuvring visually to align with the runway threshold.
An aerodynamic stall is when the speed or the angle of an aircraft, or both, are in such a state that the wings stop producing lift, causing a plane to lose altitude.
The NTSB has documented similar fatal outcomes in at least three business jet accidents since 2014 where crews exceeded critical angle of attack during approach manoeuvring. In each case — a Phenom 100 in Maryland (in 2014), a Learjet 35A in New Jersey (in 2017), and the Challenger 605 in California (in 2021) — the aircraft entered sudden, uncontrolled rolls at low altitude with insufficient height to recover.
Federation of Indian Pilots president CS Randhawa said the video evidence appeared to support the stall theory, though he cautioned that only a complete investigation would reveal the precise sequence of events. “The aircraft is supported by four forces; lift, weight, thrust and drag. Due to low speed, it appears to me that the aircraft crossed the critical angle of attack, thus the drag increased and the lift reduced, causing a wingtip stall. The nose dropped to the left due to this situation. The stick shaker would have activated in this case which would come out in the flight data recorder decoding. Also, the CVR would reveal what transpired between the pilots on the approach,” he said.
A second theory is an engine failure, which too can create similar motions as that seen in the video. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) guidance states that “loss of power on one engine creates yaw due to asymmetrical thrust” which, if uncorrected with immediate rudder input, causes “a roll toward the inoperative engine”. However, no mayday call was recorded in the 60 seconds between landing clearance and the crash, making sudden mechanical failure less probable than a stall scenario, experts said, while emphasising that flight data would provide clarity. “The Learjet 45 is a very fast aircraft and it is not designed to fly well at low speeds, especially during landing. From what I have seen, it appears that the aircraft suffered an engine failure while coming into land. When one engine fails, the power from the other engine can pull the aircraft to one side,” said Mark D Martin, of Martin Consulting, an aviation advisory firm.
A third theory is a sharp manoeuvre in the final moments, another pilot said, asking not to be named. “It appears to be a late viewing of the runway and trying to get to it with a large bank angle,” the pilot said.
An expert speaking on this theory pointed to the nature of the airport — which has no navigation aids and involves pilots relying on visual estimation. “A visual approach, by definition, means the pilot must have the runway clearly in sight. That raises a basic question who cleared the aircraft to land on a poor visibility condition on the runway, and on what basis? In this case, it appears that sun glare during the final moments may have affected visibility, and the crew realised too late that the aircraft was not aligned with the runway,” said Amit Singh, a safety expert.
Singh cited a precedent. “A similar incident occurred in the Clear Jet crash in the US in 2017, where visual cues were misjudged during approach”.
A former pilot, who asked not to be named, said: “Several things could have gone wrong at the same time: an engine failure, the aircraft slowing down too much, and the pilot losing control. When multiple problems happen together like this, it becomes very difficult to recover”.
Pilots’ body All India Pilots’ Association urged restraint on speculation. “We firmly believe that both pilots would have exercised the highest standards of professionalism and did everything humanly possible, to their very last breath, to safeguard the aircraft and those on board. ALPA India urges everyone to refrain from speculation,” it said.
The Learjet 45’s flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder, now in the custody of India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau, should reveal the aircraft’s precise airspeed, angle of attack, and control inputs in the final seconds before impact—data that will be essential to move beyond preliminary assessments to definitive conclusions about what caused the crash.