Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pulled ahead on Wednesday as votes were counted in Israel’s election, but the loss of a parliamentary majority leaves his path to another term dependent on drawing rivals into a coalition.
With the turnout in Tuesday’s election at a record high and nearly 86% of votes tallied, Israel’s three main broadcasters put Netanyahu’s bloc of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties on course to win 53 seats in parliament, with the opposition bloc of rival Gadi Eisenkot trailing on 48.
Both remained short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the Knesset, or parliament, while parties representing Arab Israelis were projected to win 19 seats.
“Maybe it’s hard to say it or to see it, but he’s the winner,” said former Netanyahu adviser Aviv Bushinsky, describing the prime minister’s comeback as a political “resurrection.”
The paradox, Bushinsky said, is that an election that denied Netanyahu a majority in parliament may have restored his political primacy.
Despite the fallout from the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel and criticism of the security failures on his watch that the attacks exposed, Netanyahu won the support of an unexpectedly clear majority of Israeli Jews and has emerged at the head of the largest bloc.
Netanyahu’s achievement was less to win than to survive, said Danny Citrinowicz, a regional analyst and former Israeli military intelligence officer.
Netanyahu’s bloc lost seats and fell short of the 61 needed to govern alone, but Eisenkot’s camp also lacked a viable route to power without the support of Arab parties.
“He won by not losing,” Citrinowicz said. “He managed to survive,” added Citrinowicz.
ARAB ISRAELIS MAKE GAINS
Netanyahu will stay on as caretaker prime minister while Israel’s president decides whom to ask to form a government. Despite not having a parliamentary majority, he retains the power of incumbency and a path to form a coalition government.
The election’s biggest disruption came from Israel’s Arab electorate, whose unprecedentedly high turnout handed Arab parties potentially decisive influence over what comes next.
Palestinian by heritage but Israeli by citizenship, Arab Israelis — who make up 21% of the population — could now hold the balance of power between the rival blocs.
“The Arabs have never been in a position where they held this much power,” said Dennis Ross, a former US Middle East peace negotiator.
Netanyahu’s opponents face a difficult route to removing him. Assembling a government would likely require direct or indirect support from Arab parties, a prospect that could prove difficult for potential right-wing partners such as Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman.
