Gadi Eisenkot has won the first round against Benjamin Netanyahu. Now comes the hard part.
President Isaac Herzog has asked the Yashar party leader to form Israel’s next government after the October 27 election left no clear winner. Eisenkot has 28 days. He can get 14 more if he needs them.
On paper, he looks strong. Sixty-seven lawmakers recommended him to the President. Forty-six backed Netanyahu. The seven members of United Torah Judaism (UTJ) named neither man.
But recommending someone for Prime Minister is one thing. Serving in his government is another. Eisenkot has the first. The second will be much tougher.
The 61-Seat Problem
The Knesset has 120 seats, so a government needs 61. Eisenkot’s anti-Netanyahu bloc has 48: his own Yashar party with 21, Together with 12, The Democrats with eight, and Yisrael Beiteinu with seven. The two Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra’am, add 19 more. That’s how it adds up to 67.
But these parties don’t share much beyond their dislike of Netanyahu. That could cause real trouble over the next four weeks.
Arab Parties: Kingmakers Or Liability
The simplest path to a majority runs through the Arab parties. The Joint List has 11 seats and Ra’am has eight, enough to push Eisenkot’s bloc past 61. The catch is Avigdor Liberman. His right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu has long refused to partner with Arab parties, and it is part of Eisenkot’s bloc.
Would he accept a government that needs Arab lawmakers to survive?
A compromise might exist. The Arab parties could stay out of the cabinet and back the government from outside, voting with it on confidence motions and key legislation. Even so, Netanyahu and the right would fight it hard. Netanyahu has already attacked the idea, casting a government that leans on Arab parties as a security threat.
Expect that fight to get louder as talks go on.