China’s military leadership is expected to outline its aims for global security when it hosts its annual defence forum this week amid churning tensions in its own neighbourhood over Taiwan, the South China Sea and doubts about U.S. commitments to Asia.
Defence Minister Dong Jun is expected to open the three-day Xiangshan Forum in Beijing on Tuesday with a fresh pitch for closer international cooperation within a multi-polar world but is likely to also include coded attacks on the U.S. and its allies, diplomats and analysts say.
Hundreds of military officers, diplomats and scholars from dozens of countries are expected to attend the three-day event, a tightly scripted Chinese rival to the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, widely seen as a more freewheeling affair.
Some Asian envoys and analysts say that any overt Chinese criticism of the U.S. and its Western allies could be tempered because of President Xi Jinping’s planned visit to Washington later this month to meet President Donald Trump.
Japan, however, could be an easier target given current tensions between Beijing and Tokyo.
“I anticipate the Chinese host will also be using the platform to harp on Japan’s wartime past and criticise Tokyo’s supposed ‘remilitarisation’,” said Singapore-based Chinese security scholar James Char.
Taiwan, whose military last month conducted military and civil defence drills to practice fighting a Chinese invasion, does not attend the forum or most major international events. Neither government recognises the other and China views the democratically governed island as its own territory.
Dong’s speech on Tuesday will follow recent statements from Xi calling for greater representation for Global South countries in international affairs.
At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kyrgyzstan earlier this month, Xi said: “The domination of international affairs by a few is an injustice left over from history, and global governance dictated by one, a few or a bloc of countries is not true multilateralism.”
Western nations generally send relatively low-level delegations to the forum while some regional countries will send ministers as they try to juggle relations with China, a modern military power, and the U.S., the long-dominant East Asian defence ally.
The U.S. delegation is expected to be headed by the Pentagon’s principal director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, Cynthia Carras, a U.S. official said.
Vietnam, China’s neighbour and rival in the disputed South China Sea, is sending Defence Minister Phan Van Giang while Malaysia will be represented by Vice Defence Minister Adly Zahari.
DOUBTS ABOUT BOTH CHINA AND U.S.
Doubts about U.S. security commitments in Asia will create an opening for Beijing to argue that regional defence should be managed by Asian countries, but China’s assertive behaviour sharply limits its ability to capitalize on it, said Patricia Kim, an East Asia politics and security expert at Washington-based Brookings Institution.
“Many Asian countries remain deeply sceptical of China because of its increasingly assertive behaviour in the region, particularly in the South China Sea,” Kim said.
As Xi’s corruption purges continue within China’s military, the forum is expected to give foreign delegations the chance to weigh their impact on the leadership.
