IMD predicts Delhi’s monsoon arrival within days, as the capital remains dry while nearby regions receive abundant rainfall.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday predicted the monsoon would reach Delhi within days—the latest in a series of forecasts it has repeatedly revised in recent weeks as the national capital remains among the last holdouts awaiting seasonal rains that have blanketed the entire country except for a narrow sliver in the northwest.
IMD had forecast the monsoon would reach Delhi by June 24, ahead of its normal arrival date of June 27. But the southwest monsoon winds have eluded the capital so far.(HT Photo/Raj K Raj)
IMD had forecast the monsoon would reach Delhi by June 24, ahead of its normal arrival date of June 27. But the southwest monsoon winds have eluded the capital so far.(HT Photo/Raj K Raj)
While “conditions are becoming favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over remaining parts of the country during next 2-3 days,” according to the IMD, the capital’s isolation in this meteorological map stands in contrast to the rest of India, where the southwest monsoon has largely kept pace with or exceeded early predictions made at the beginning of June.
The region left uncovered this year—a narrow sliver from the westernmost parts of Uttar Pradesh and Delhi to the western extreme of Rajasthan—represents the smallest area left out by the monsoon since 1961, when the earliest available progress maps began, according to analysis of historical data.
IMD had forecast the monsoon would reach Delhi by June 24, ahead of its normal arrival date of June 27. Since then, meteorologists have issued daily forecasts pushing back the onset, a pattern now attributed to specific upper-level atmospheric circulation patterns that continue to impede rainfall over the Delhi region while neighbouring areas receive abundant rain.
“We can say monsoon will reach Delhi anytime in the next couple of days,” an IMD scientist said. The scientist explained that the monsoon trough—currently positioned just south of Delhi—needs to shift merely a few kilometres northward to trigger rainfall conditions.
“Anti-cyclonic winds over the region are inhibiting the flow of monsoon winds, but active conditions will begin once the trough moves northward,” the scientist said.
Anti-cyclonic winds refer to air currents that rotate clockwise in the northern hemisphere, creating high-pressure zones that suppress rainfall. Typically, during this time of year, cyclonic (counter-clockwise) circulation patterns dominate, drawing moisture inland from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea to fuel monsoon rains. These wind patterns also create low pressure, causing moisture-laden winds to rise up, where water droplets condense into dense rain clouds.
Never since 1961, when the earliest available monsoon progress maps began, has the seasonal rains left out as narrow and small a region as this year—a sliver running from the westernmost parts of Uttar Pradesh and Delhi to the western extreme of Rajasthan.
While it’s common for small regions over Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana to be the last areas covered by the monsoon, this year’s pattern is unprecedented in its acute angle and minimal geographic scope.
In fact, India as a whole has received 9% above-normal rainfall this June. Central India has recorded 22% excess, and northwest India as a region has seen 39% more rain than usual.
Delhi, though, remains dry and hot — caught between weather systems. Humidity levels have risen due to the moisture around the capital, but cloud cover and rainfall remain erratic and minimal.
The IMD’s extended-range forecast indicates that the monsoon trough is expected to settle around its normal position between July 3 and 10. This could bring normal to above-normal rainfall to northwest India, including Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, and the Western Himalayas.