As Iranian media boast of the “magnificent defeat” of the United States, Tehran is pressing its advantage, racing to sell oil under the interim peace agreement signed this week and trying to halt Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
But the Islamic Republic suffered its own major blows and faces challenges ahead. Its economy is in shambles after the war, the country was rocked by mass protests in January, and its supreme leader has yet to appear in public. It is entering nuclear talks with the U.S. after coming under attack during two previous rounds.
The deal offers desperately needed sanctions relief, much of which will come only if Iran rolls back its nuclear program, including at a minimum diluting its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. That concession has angered Iranian hard-liners. The U.S. is meanwhile demanding it cease enrichment entirely, something Iran has staunchly refused for decades.
Iran’s leaders are projecting confidence, having clung to power despite weeks of heavy U.S. and Israeli strikes. They also believe U.S. President Donald Trump is unlikely to carry out threats to resume the war because of Iran’s demonstrated ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and damage the world economy.
“It’s too much to say that Iran has emerged a victor, but it could have been much worse,” said Farzan Sabet, an Iran expert at the Geneva Graduate Institute think tank. “I think that the real victory for Iran was … survival.”
The deal offers financial benefits
Under the interim deal, the U.S. is to issue waivers to allow for the export of Iranian crude oil. At least three state-owned Iranian oil tankers have already set sail as the U.S. has lifted its blockade, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
Iran has exported nearly 18 million barrels in the last five days, the firm TankerTrackers.com said Friday, putting the value at $1.44 billion.
Dozens more tankers loaded with oil could soon depart from Kharg Island, Iran’s main export terminal on the Persian Gulf, further pushing down world prices.
Benchmark Brent crude, which traded over $110 a barrel last month, has fallen to around $80 since the deal was reached. The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. also has dropped to under $4, a closely watched metric ahead of midterm congressional elections.
Source : https://apnews.com/article/iran-strategy-us-war-israel-analysis-c3711f45fbb3a21723273e6156e4992e