BlackRock Spoils the Party – Says No to XRP-Spot ETF Filing
Speculation about BlackRock (BLK) applying to launch an iShares XRP Trust intensified on Friday, August 8. Investors and the ETF community expected Ripple and the SEC’s appeal withdrawals to lead to an XRP-spot ETF application.
ETF Store President Nate Geraci referred to the Joint Stipulation of Dismissal (appeal withdrawals), stating:
“Yes, I think BlackRock was waiting to see this before filing for iShares XRP ETF. I’ll own it if I’m wrong.”
However, BlackRock reportedly stated:
“At this time, BlackRock does not have any plans to file an XRP or SOL ETF.”
Geraci remarked:
“BlackRock immediately calls me out… Says no at this time to launch xrp (or sol) ETF. IMO, this will be looked back on as a mistake. We shall see.”
The news poured cold water on the euphoria surrounding the conclusion of the SEC vs. Ripple case.
Why Does BlackRock Matter?
According to VettaFi, BlackRock is the world’s largest ETF issuer, with total assets under management (AUM) of $3,562,008 million. The ETF issuer has dominated the BTC and ETH spot ETF markets, climbing above Vanguard to top the AUM rankings.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has reported total net inflows of $57,426 million since launching in January 2024. Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), the second-largest BTC-spot ETF, has seen $12,007 million in net inflows, which pales in comparison to IBIT’s haul.
Considering the current issuers awaiting the SEC’s decision on pending XRP-spot ETF applications, BTC-spot ETF net inflows since launch include:
- Bitwise (BITB): $2,318 million.
- Franklin Templeton (EZBC): $280 million.
- WisdomTree (BTCW): $40 million.
- Grayscale (BTC): $1,663 million.
- Grayscale (GBTC): Total net outflows of $23,708 million.
In terms of ETF issuer rankings, WisdomTree ranks #13 by AUM, with Franklin Templeton #22, while Bitwise sits at #53.
While BlackRock’s comments weighed on the appetite for XRP, leading players in the ETF space could fuel institutional demand, potentially driving XRP to record highs. Polymarket places the odds of an XRP-spot ETF approval at 78%, down from 89% on Thursday, August 7.
XRP Price Outlook: Focus Shifts to Spot ETFs
XRP fell 1.05% on Friday, August 8, partially reversing Thursday’s 10.94% rally to close at $3.2852. The token underperformed the broader market, which climbed 0.10%, lifting the total crypto market cap to $3.84 trillion. Market disappointment over BlackRock’s stance on an XRP-spot ETF filing and profit-taking left XRP in the red.
In the near-term, XRP’s price trajectory hinges on several crucial events, including:
- XRP-spot ETF headlines.
- Ripple’s progress on a US banking license.
- SWIFT-related updates.
- Legislative developments.
A breakout above the August 8 high of $3.3830 could pave the way toward the crucial $3.5 resistance level. A sustained move through $3.5 may enable the bulls to target the July 18 all-time high of $3.6606 (Binance Exchange).
However, a drop below $3.2 may expose the August 5 low of $2.9184. If broken, the bears could target the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Bitcoin: BTC-Spot ETF Market Faces Weekly Outflows
Bitcoin (BTC) joined XRP in the red on August 8, bucking the broader market trend. Crucial developments on Capitol Hill failed to drive BTC to record highs.
On August 7, White House A.I. and Crypto Czar David Sachs shared details of two key Executive Orders affecting the digital asset space. Commenting on the Executive Order Guaranteeing Fair Banking For All Americans, Sachs remarked:
“Guaranteeing Fair Banking for All Americans” prevents the denial of banking services based on political beliefs, religious beliefs, or lawful business practices. This means unfair censorship campaigns, like the debanking of conservatives or Operation Chokepoint 2.0, can never happen again.”
Commenting on Executive Order Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors, he stated:
“Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors” will allow more than 90 million American workers, whose retirement accounts are currently limited, to access the same range of alternative assets (including digital assets) that are available to government workers, for better returns and diversification.”
The Executive Orders could drive BTC demand, potentially opening the door to new record highs. However, BTC-spot ETF flows weighed on sentiment.
US BTC-Spot ETF Market Risks Weekly Outflows
The Executive Orders and expectations of a September Fed rate cut lifted demand for BTC-spot ETFs. However, inflows waned in early August, capping BTC’s gains. BTC has risen just 0.56% to 116,450 in August to date. In contrast, the broader market has gained 2.83%, taking the total crypto market cap to $3.84 trillion.
According to Farside Investors, the US BTC-spot ETF market has reported total net outflows of $919.1 million in August to date, excluding pending IBIT flow data from August 8. For context, the US BTC-spot ETF market recorded total net inflows of $6,012.6 million in July.
On August 8, key inflows included:
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported total net inflows of $30.5 million.
- Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) saw total net inflows of $13.4 million.
With BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) flow data pending, total US BTC-spot ETF inflows reached $43.9 million.
BTC Price Outlook: US Economic Data and Spot ETF Flows in Focus
BTC fell 0.83% on Friday, August 8, partially reversing Thursday’s 2.11% gain to close at $116,512.
Several key events will influence the near-term price outlook. These include:
- US CPI Report.
- Fed policy guidance.
- Legislative developments on Capitol Hill.
- BTC-spot ETF flows.
Potential scenarios:
- Bearish Scenario: Legislation roadblocks, higher US inflation, hawkish Fed signals, and ETF outflows. A combination of these may push BTC toward $115,000, potentially exposing the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
- Bullish Scenario: Bipartisan support for crypto legislation, softer US inflation, dovish Fed rhetoric, and ETF inflows. In this case, BTC could target the all-time high of $122,055.
