While the announcement at the event convened by France and Saudi Arabia could boost the morale of Palestinians in their long search for statehood, it was not expected to deliver change on the ground.
Dozens of world leaders gathered at the United Nations on Monday (Sep 22) to embrace a Palestinian state, a landmark diplomatic shift nearly two years into the Gaza war that faces fierce resistance from Israel and its close ally the United States.
President Emmanuel Macron announced that France would recognise Palestine statehood at a meeting he convened with Saudi Arabia, a milestone that could boost Palestinian morale but appeared unlikely to change much on the ground.
The most far-right government in Israel’s history has declared there will be no Palestinian state as it pushes on with its fight against militant group Hamas in Gaza following the Oct 7, 2023, attack on Israel that killed some 1,200 people.
Israel has drawn global condemnation over its military conduct in Gaza, where more than 65,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to local health authorities. In recent weeks, Israel has begun a long-threatened ground assault on Gaza City with few prospects for a ceasefire.
“We must pave the way for peace,” Macron said at the start of the session at the United Nations in New York.
“We must do everything within our power to preserve the very possibility of a two-state solution, Israel and Palestine living side by side in peace and security,” he said before announcing the diplomatic move, drawing lengthy applause from the audience.
Israel has said such moves will undermine the prospects of a peaceful end to the conflict.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres were among those who also spoke during the event.
Macron outlined a framework for a “renewed Palestinian Authority” under which France would open an embassy subject to factors such as reforms, a ceasefire and the release of all remaining hostages taken from Israel and held by Hamas in Gaza.
Andorra, Belgium, Luxembourg and San Marino were also expected to recognise a Palestinian state on Monday ahead of this week’s UN General Assembly, after Australia, Britain, Canada and Portugal did so at the weekend. Malta made the announcement earlier on Monday.
Macron’s July pledge on recognition set the latest push in motion, with Britain, Canada and Australia later saying they would follow, and eventually doing so on Sunday.
“We call on those who have not yet done so to follow suit,” Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said via video link, as he was unable to attend the milestone events after being refused a US visa.
“We call for your support so that Palestine becomes a full-fledged member of the United Nations,” he added, promising reforms and elections within a year of a ceasefire.
A delegation representing the State of Palestine has observer status at the United Nations, but no voting rights. No matter how many countries recognise Palestinian independence, full UN membership would require approval by the Security Council, where the US has a veto.
Michael Singh, a managing director and Lane-Swig senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said the latest recognitions are driven by Western allies’ frustration over their inability to influence Israel and the war in Gaza.
“It’s probably aimed at their own public opinion … and at Israeli public opinion to try to show that (Israel) is isolated, and that the war (has) international consequences,” he said.
However, he pointed out that even among the European powers recognising a Palestinian state, there is little unity on concrete actions such as sanctions or arms embargoes.
“(Any sanctions) are likely to be weak and not very effective in influencing Israel. Some of them could backfire,” Singh said.
“There is a chance that, by imposing sanctions, the backlash against Europe could actually strengthen the hardliners in Israel.”
TWO STATE SOLUTION
The two-state solution was the bedrock of the US-backed peace process ushered in by the 1993 Oslo Accords. The process suffered heavy pushback from both sides and has all but died.
No such negotiations over a two-state solution have been held since 2014.
The United States and Israel boycotted Monday’s meeting. Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon said Israel would discuss how to respond to the announcements of recognition after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returns to Israel next week.
“Those issues were supposed to be negotiated between Israel and the Palestinians in the future,” Danon told reporters ahead of the meeting. Netanyahu is scheduled to meet US President Donald Trump on Monday in Washington before returning to Israel.
The United States has told other countries that Palestinian recognition will create more problems, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said earlier this month.
Amid Israel’s intensified Gaza offensive and escalating violence by Israeli settlers in the West Bank, there is a growing sense of urgency among some nations to act now before the idea of a two-state solution vanishes forever.
France has driven the move, hoping that Macron’s announcement in July that he would recognise a Palestinian state would give greater momentum to a movement hitherto dominated by smaller nations that are generally more critical of Israel.
EUROPEAN DIVISIONS AND ISRAELI RESPONSE
While the majority of European countries now recognise a Palestinian state, two of the continent’s largest economies, Germany and Italy, have signalled they are unlikely to make such a move soon.
Germany, long a strong supporter of Israel because of its responsibility for the Holocaust, has grown more critical of Israeli policy, while insisting that recognition of a Palestinian state should come at the end of a political process to agree on a two-state solution.
The German government spokesperson also said on Monday there must be no further annexations in Israeli-occupied territory.
Italy said recognising a Palestinian state could be “counterproductive”.
On the ground, Netanyahu has rejected numerous calls to end the campaign until Hamas is destroyed and has said he will not recognise a Palestinian state.
Israel is considering annexing part of the occupied West Bank as a possible response as well as specific bilateral measures against Paris, Israeli officials have said, even though the recognitions are expected to be largely symbolic.
Annexation could backfire and alienate such countries as the United Arab Emirates, a global oil power and trade hub with wide diplomatic clout across the Middle East.
