Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in his secret hideout these days, knows he is now a marked man. He will not be sitting on his veranda anytime soon.
When discussing what the United States might do next to help the protesters in Iran, US President Trump has mentioned Qassem Soleimani and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
The former, Iran’s all-important military strategist in the Middle East, was killed on 3 January 2020 in a drone strike just outside Baghdad’s international airport on the president’s order. The latter, who was the leader of IS, killed himself and two children by detonating a suicide vest on 27 October 2019 when US forces raided his hideout in northern Syria after the approval of the president.
But Ayatollah Khamenei also has the fate of the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, to consider.
He was killed on 27 September 2024 in an Israeli air raid while 60 feet underground beneath a high-rise residential building in Beirut, where he was meeting his top lieutenants.
The kidnapping of President Nicholas Maduro in Venezuela recently, in a daring commando-style raid by US forces in Caracas, can’t be far from the Ayatollah’s mind.
But it is not clear what impact the removal of the Iranian leader would have on the future of the protests that have been going on in Iran, or indeed on the future of the Islamic Republic. If indeed he’s removed from power.
President Trump is now weighing up his options. So where does this leave the Supreme Leader and his regime?
A hated figure for Iranians
The 86-year-old Ayatollah Khamenei has been a hated figure for most Iranians.
For years, protesters up and down the country have been calling for his downfall. He has been a terrible leader for the country. His regime has been among the most repressive in the world.
During his 36-year rule in the name of Islam, he has pursued relentless anti-American and anti-Western policies, while relying on Russia and China for survival. He pursued a half-baked nuclear policy that has brought the country the second-heaviest international sanctions in history after Russia, making the country poorer and struggling.
His attempts to project power in the Middle East set the region on fire. His calls for the destruction of Israel have led to wars with Israel.
In recent protests, Ayatollah Khamenei gave the green light to the security forces to massacre protesters.
Internet shutdowns in Iran make it difficult to have a clear view of the extent of the bloodbath, but thousands were killed by the security forces, not only in towns and cities but also in villages, which is indicative of the extent of the protests.
His removal, either through surgical strikes or a commando raid, would certainly force a change at the top of the regime, perhaps opening the path to changes in policies and in the direction the country may take.
Who or what would replace him is unclear. Chaos and lawlessness may follow. But more likely, the Revolutionary Guard would try to fill the vacuum and establish military rule.
Some in the regime could even welcome the removal of Ayatollah Khamenei from the equation, says Arash Azizi, lecturer at Yale University and author of What Iranians Want.
“A significant section of the ruling elite in Iran is ready to make some changes. Do away with Khamenei. Do away with some of the core policies and the core institutions of the Islamic Republic.
“So they might even welcome US attacks as an opportunity to accelerate that process.”
‘There are the rulers and the ruled’
The current speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, 64, is a member of the Revolutionary Guard with an authoritarian streak. He has discarded his uniform for civilian clothes. He has been vocal in support of the regime.
But Ayatollah Khamenei never trusted him fully. Regime insiders suspected him of being a wolf in sheep’s clothing, waiting in the wings for the right moment.
It is also possible that relatively moderate figures in the regime could jostle their way to the top.
Former President Hassan Rouhani comes to mind. He has been positioning himself as a serious candidate for the moderates Islamists and the reformists in the event of the passing of the leader.
Ali Ansari, founding director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews, believes that reformists are largely irrelevant.
“Basically, reformists don’t really exist… They’re there as a sort of pastiche, cosmetic, whatever. They’ve been completely marginalised.
“There are basically the rulers and the ruled.”
But the name that many people in the streets of Iranian towns and cities have been shouting is that of the son of the former Shah of Iran, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who is 65 and has been living in exile in Washington for most of his life.
In recent years, Reza Pahlavi has grown in popularity inside Iran, where many look to the Shah’s era, particularly the 1970s, with nostalgia. It was an era when Iranians were among the most well-off nations, as long as they did not talk politics.
But Reza Pahlavi is by no means a unifying figure. In fact, many argue he has been divisive. Failing to unite the Iranian opposition abroad under one banner, he has opted to go it alone, claiming that the nation is behind him.
And even if he were the sole leader Iranians were craving for inside the country, it is not hard to see that he is in an impossible position to take over. He has no organisational base in Iran to rely on to arrange his ascent to power.
Many argue that his surprising popularity inside Iran during recent protests stems from the fact that many protesters saw him as the only contender for power standing against a detested regime.
These protesters may prefer someone who has absolutely no connection with the regime and who wants better relations with the West.
“Right now, there’s very little that will accommodate the protesters because these protests are about something bigger,” says Dr Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.
“It’s about completely transforming Iranian governance away from the individuals and the system that have been in place for almost five decades now.”
But having a lot of time to himself in the bunker, Ayatollah Khamenei may be reviewing in his mind what has been going on in the past three weeks and how he got here.
He may take satisfaction from the fact that the regime has so far remained loyal to him. There are no signs of significant dissent or disloyalty in the Revolutionary Guard, which was created to safeguard the regime in the first place.
President Trump’s words have given the impression that possible US attacks on the bases of the Revolutionary Guard and other security forces may weaken and fracture them and give space to the protesters to come out in even bigger numbers to topple the regime.
He has instigated protesters to continue to speak out and occupy government buildings. “Help is on its way,” he said.
It is possible that protesters who have largely withdrawn from the streets in the face of the frightening willingness of the security forces to shoot to kill may be encouraged by President Trump’s instigation and come out again.
Certainly, many of them now believe that they need foreign intervention if they are going to be able to put an end to the regime.
But even if help is not on its way, Iranians know that they will come out again sooner or later, having learned a few lessons from the most recent spate of protests.
Ploughing on with an iron fist
In the past 16 years, Iranians have come out to protest Ayatollah Khamenei several times.
The last round was in 2022 after the death of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, while she was held in police custody for not wearing her hijab properly.
A wave of protests ensued throughout the country under the banner of “Woman, Life, Freedom,” which went on for several weeks and was eventually put down by sheer force and brutality meted out by the security forces.
Back then, it was the pressure on women from Islamists that brought people out on the streets; many thought enough was enough.
The protests this time have been about the economy and about bread. Traders can’t function with the falling value of the currency, the rial. Many others cannot make ends meet. Poverty is spreading fast under international sanctions and, perhaps more importantly, under mismanagement.
At the same time, Iran is facing shortages of water, electricity, and, importantly, gas – while sitting on the second-largest reserves of natural gas in the world. Neglect has led to catastrophic environmental degradation that may last forever.
The Supreme Leader has agreed that traders and shopkeepers, who started to protest late last month, had a genuine grievance. They had said the constantly falling value of the currency had made it impossible for them to do business.
The Ayatollah has said that the country’s officials are trying to sort the problem. But he also said that the problem was created by the enemies.
