SHOWDOWN talks between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky will be like an ice cold poker game, an expert says.
And one of the two rivals will have a clear upper hand if potential peace negotiations that could shape the future of Europe get underway in Istanbul.
Zelensky and Putin have met in public once before, at the Elysee Palace in Paris, in 2019, when they spoke about the conflict in the Donbas.
But the pair could now meet in the iconic Turkish city as they engage in a game of high stakes diplomatic brinkmanship.
Dr Colin Alexander at Nottingham Trent University has told The Sun that Zelensky needs to try and be smart about the man he would be sitting across from.
Putin would be level headed as he goes about trying to achieve his goals – something the Ukrainian needed to respect in order to get peace.
Dr Alexander said: “You’re playing the scenario, but you’re also playing the person as well.
“I know that’s maybe a poker analogy. But that’s kind of where we’re at with this if you’re negotiating with a professional.”
In such a high-pressure and emotionally charged set piece, an historic clash could erupt between Zelensky and Putin that rivals the infamous Oval Office row.
But Dr Alexander said: “Vladimir Putin is very different type of politician, a very shrewd, very intelligent politician, but he’s not going to engage with Zelensky in that [angry] way.
“I think that there’s there’s much greater seriousness to this, and he’s more likely to be more courteous, I think, to him.”
For Ukraine’s benefit, Dr Alexander said Zelensky had to have the same poker-like mindset.
Zelensky’s country has been invaded and tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed – but wartime diplomacy means talking to people you might detest in order to get peace.
He said: ” In these dreadful circumstances comes an understanding that you have to engage with people who you firmly disagree with, and may well find to be quite repugnant.
“Zelensky hopefully treats it with the maturity and the responsibility that it deserves.
“But that doesn’t mean that Zelensky won’t go in with the sort of painful memory of that moment at the White House in the back of his mind.”
Exactly how the meeting plays out depends on whether the two leaders see a genuine chance at finding an end to the war.
If not, then we would see “dead cats” – distraction tactics, like a fabricated row, could be used by either side to shift the focus from their being no substantive progress, Dr Alexander said.
That could even mean Zelensky ditching his pseudo-combat fatigues for a suit to try and signal to Donald Trump he’s serious about peace and change the media coverage in a clever bait and switch.
Dr Alexander said: “He’s [Zelensky] pretty good at the choreography aspect of politics, which in this highly mediated 21st century is kind of half the battle, or maybe even more than half the battle.”
If there is little progress, then some might see no chance of Putin meeting with Zelensky.
But Dr Alexander said that Putin risked being viewed as “petulant” even in his own country if he wouldn’t meet Zelensky or treated him badly if they did.
If everyone wants peace why is the war in Ukraine still raging? The answer is very simple
Comment by Jerome Starkey, Defence Editor for The Sun
EVERYONE says they want peace, so why is the war still raging in Ukraine?
The short answer is simple: Peace means very different things to very different people.
They have different goals and different motives. Vladimir Putin wants total conquest.
And he wants to be remembered as a modern Tsar who restored Russia’s imperial greatness.
Ukraine wants to survive, as a sovereign independent nation.
Europe wants a chastened Russia and peace that lasts beyond six months.
Trump just wants a deal — any deal at any price — with minerals thrown in for good measure.
He wants to claim the glory and perhaps a Nobel Peace Prize for sorting out the carnage which he sees as Barack Obama and Joe Biden’s mess.
The American position is clear from the terrible deal they want Kyiv to accept.
Their so-called seven-point peace plan would freeze the war on the current front lines and force Ukraine to surrender almost all of its occupied territories — some 44,000 square miles — with almost nothing in return.
The expert believes there likely would be a handshake between the two leaders if they meet with Zelensky more likely to let his emotions show in the hand grasp.
Dr Alexander said: “How these two men will behave in the handshake carries a lot of of weight in it.”
If there is any actual progress on peace, diplomacy would likely occur behind closed doors.
“Whenever there is a sort of bilateral meeting of this nature, particularly given the high stakes… this is very much for public audience.”
But, for Zelensky to have Donald Trump’s backing he has to prove he is serious about peace.
One factor that sits in Zelensky’s favour is that Putin is a dictator and sets Russian policy himself.
Zelensky can reason directly with Putin and could try his best to change the Russian’s mind about an issue during the meeting – and therefore change Russian policy.
Whereas democrat Zelensky still has a democracy he is accountable to.
Dr Alexander said: “What’s interesting is that in in any meeting Zelensky cannot firmly make a decision. He has to go back and speak to other people.”
Source : https://www.the-sun.com/news/14215780/zelensky-putin-talks-poker-game/
