The TMC’s internal turmoil has delighted many in the BJP. But others in the party worry that if the Mamata Banerjee-founded party collapses entirely, the BJP might end up facing the rapidly reviving CPI(M)-led Left Front. Then there could be the Left-Congress combine too.
West Bengal CM Suvendu Adhikari had a prediction to make on May 4, the day the results of the state’s Assembly polls were announced; the Trinamool Congress (TMC) could disintegrate following its electoral debacle. A month later, while the TMC hasn’t disintegrated, it is facing its biggest internal crisis since its founding. Yet many in the BJP wouldn’t want the TMC to collapse. The reason: if the TMC were to collapse, the BJP might end up facing a more stronger foe in West Bengal, the CPI(M)-led Left Front.
The TMC is now facing its biggest existential crisis since its formation in 1998. On Wednesday, 60 of its 80 MLAs under the leadership of two-time Rajya Sabha MP and Uluberia Purba MLA Ritabrata Banerjee successfully rebelled against Mamata Banerjee’s choice of Leader of Opposition (LoP). The rebel MLAs got Ritabrata elected as the LoP.
While many in the BJP would undoubtedly welcome the TMC falling apart due to the rebellion, others are far less enthusiastic about such a scenario. Their concern is that the TMC’s collapse would create a vacuum that would be used by the CPI(M)-led Left Front alone or in combination with the Congress to mount a serious challenge. The Left Front could repeat what the BJP itself achieved in the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 Assembly elections, flipping large segments of the state’s Left-aligned voter base.
Kolkata-based author and journalist Snigdhendu Bhattacharya told India Today Digital that many within the Bengal BJP now fear that a potential Left-Congress alliance could pull off a similar turnaround if the TMC implodes.
The Left Front, led by the CPI(M), was once the dominant political force in West Bengal, ruling the state uninterrupted for 34 years. However, over the course of 15 years of TMC rule, it was reduced to almost a political footnote, losing all representation in both the Assembly and the Lok Sabha from West Bengal.
Yet signs of a Left resurgence are beginning to emerge. For the first time since 2016, the CPI(M) has won an Assembly seat, securing victory in Domkal. Its long-dormant cadre network is reportedly becoming active once again, with social media posts showing party offices being renovated and reopened.
The Left’s affiliate organisations such as the ABTA (All Bengal Teachers’ Association) and the CITU (Centre of Indian Trade Unions) have also become more visible, returning to the streets after years of relative inactivity.
The clearest indication of this revival came in the Falta repoll, where the Left staged an unexpected comeback. The CPI (M) finished second behind the BJP, polling more than 40,000 votes. The CPI (M) comfortably outperformed the TMC candidate, Jahangir Khan, who surrendered at the last minute.
For the BJP, the Trinamool poses a relatively limited threat because it remains primarily a regional force under Mamata Banerjee, with its influence largely confined to West Bengal. While the party has attempted to expand into other states, including Assam, its footprint there remains modest and is unlikely to worry the BJP in the immediate future.
The Congress and the Left, however, present a different challenge. Both are national parties with organisational networks and political relevance across multiple states. What makes their potential revival particularly significant is West Bengal’s political history. The state was governed by the CPI(M)-led Left Front for an uninterrupted 34 years from 1977 to 2011, demonstrating the Left’s deep-rooted cadre base and ideological appeal.
With the CPI(M) showing signs of regaining political space in Bengal, the BJP might be wary that the state could emerge as the launching pad for a broader Congress-Left resurgence. A revival of this alliance in Bengal would not merely affect state politics. It could provide momentum for a national comeback of the Congress-Left combine. Such a development would be far more concerning for the BJP than the continued dominance of a regional player like the TMC.
WHY WOULD THE BJP WANT THE TMC TO REMAIN ALIVE?
According to author and journalist Snigdhendu Bhattacharya, sections within the West Bengal BJP are worried that a rising Left-Congress alliance could fill the vacuum left by the defeated TMC, absorbing a significant portion of its voter base just as the BJP had absorbed traditional Left voters in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2021 State Assembly Elections.
In both contests, the BJP successfully flipped more than 20% of the state’s traditional Left-leaning voters, helping it secure a firm foothold in Bengal with 18 Lok Sabha seats and 77 Assembly seats respectively.
This anxiety explains why the BJP in Bengal has so far refrained from trying to absorb dissident TMC MLAs, which would lead to a collapse despite the Mamata Banerjee-founded party being in the midst of a full-blown rebellion.
Ever since the election results were announced on May 4, both BJP and RSS leaders have repeatedly emphasised that TMC workers and leaders must not be easily admitted into the saffron camp.
“The BJP could very easily split the TMC if it wanted to,” Bhattacharya told India Today Digital. “But they are refraining from doing so because a section of the BJP leadership in Bengal wants the TMC to stay. They are worried the Left will repeat what the BJP did.”
This strategy aligns with author and journalist Sayantan Ghosh’s assessment of a new model in which a weakened but surviving TMC faction continues to occupy the opposition space without mounting a direct or effective challenge to the BJP.
“I am not prepared to describe this [the Ritabrata Banerjee-led rebellion within the TMC] as the Maharashtra model [referring to how 40 MLA’s led by Eknath Shinde broke away from the Uddhav Thackrey-led Shiv Sena].” Ghosh noted in a post on X. “What we are witnessing is a completely new model of dealing with an opposition party. The objective appears to be the creation of an opposition formation that does not directly challenge the ruling party—in this case, the BJP—while continuing to claim the political space of the original party.”
The BJP’s capability to fracture the ruling party has been openly confirmed by its own leadership. BJP MP Saumitra Khan recently claimed that approximately 50 TMC MLAs and 20 MPs were very disgruntled and prepared to switch allegiances to the BJP if the party’s central leadership gave the green light.
“If the BJP central leadership says it once, the TMC will not remain a party any more. Everyone is ready to come. Around 50 MLAs are unhappy with the party and 20 MPs are ready to join,” Khan stated, highlighting the delicate balance the BJP is currently trying to maintain in West Bengal.
Yet, this absorption of disgruntled TMC leaders into the BJP hasn’t happened. Party leaders, including State President, Samik Bhattachrya, have, in fact, stated that the doors of the party would remain closed to potential TMC rebels. This was to prevent the “Trinamoolisation of BJP”, he had claimed.
THE ODISHA BJD EXAMPLE FOR TMC IN WEST BENGAL?
In a Facebook post, Snigdhendu Bhattacharya argued that the BJP had helped ensure the survival of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha after the latter’s 2024 electoral defeat to prevent a Congress resurgence in the state. A similar scenario might also play out in West Bengal.
According to Bhattacharya, the BJD had come close to splitting amid tensions within its leadership over the relationship between party supremo Naveen Patnaik and his aide VK Pandian. The party ultimately remained intact, he noted, owing to Patnaik’s firm control over the organisation and the BJP’s decision to stay away from the internal dispute.
“The BJP kept the BJD together to keep the Congress out of Odisha,” Bhattacharya wrote. “Similarly, it will seek to keep the TMC more or less intact in West Bengal.”
CAN THE LEFT STAGE A COMEBACK, POSE A CHALLENGE TO BJP IN BENGAL?
While sections of the BJP are worried about a CPI (M)-led revival of communist parties in West Bengal, does the Left actually have what it takes to pull off such an act?
After its 2011 ouster by the TMC and a massive voter migration to the BJP after 2019, the Left Front is showing its first major signs of a grassroots revival in West Bengal.
The CPI(M) secured the Domkal Assembly seat and polled over 40,000 votes in the Falta repoll. It is actively reviving its cadre base and reopening offices. The Left has become highly visible on the ground, actively leading protests against railway station hawker evictions through organisations like the CITU while the TMC has remained largely absent.
Snigdhendu Bhattacharya told India Today Digital that sustaining this grassroots momentum was absolutely crucial for the Left to regain true political relevance, especially as the TMC grappled with internal fractures that weakened its ability to mobilise people for mass movements.
However, translating these local gains into a credible challenge against the BJP will require a massive strategic shift. To become the principal opposition, the Left must successfully flip a significant portion of the TMC’s voter base, just as the BJP did in recent elections.
Bhattacharya noted that while a potential Left-Congress alliance could credibly syphon away both minority and Hindu voters in southern West Bengal, the Left Front has to stop alienating potential defectors.
