Allies of the prime minister are making it clear he would fight any challenge to his leadership from Labour MPs.
There are fears from those loyal to Sir Keir Starmer that his job might be under immediate threat, perhaps as soon as shortly after the Budget in a fortnight’s time.
Critics say it is evidence that Downing Street is “in full bunker mode” which “won’t help the government out of the hole we’re in.”
Friends of Sir Keir are deeply worried about what they see as plotting going on to try to replace him and are seeking to make clear what they see as the grave risks of a leadership challenge.
Those names being discussed by Labour MPs as potential candidates to displace Sir Keir include some of his closest cabinet allies, especially Wes Streeting, the health secretary, and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood.
Some also speculate about the ambitions of Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, and backbenchers including the former transport secretary Louise Haigh.
“He will fight this,” one minister said, before making reference to a key by-election in 2021 which Labour lost to the Conservatives, prompting Sir Keir to consider resigning as Labour’s leader.
“This is not a Hartlepool moment,” they added.
“He is one of only two people alive who have won a general election for Labour. It’d be madness to run against him after 17 months.”
For months now, plenty in the Labour Party have acknowledged that the government faces a likely crunch point after devolved elections in Scotland and Wales and local elections in many parts of England next May.
Labour is widely expected to do badly in those elections, but there are growing concerns from some in the party that it can’t wait until then to contemplate a change of leader.
Downing Street is aware of the potential imminence of such a threat to them.
One senior Labour MP told us: “It’s all very well to say wait for the locals, but that’s my activist base I’m sending into the gunfire. I can’t lose all my councillors.”
Another Labour source said: “The list of reasons for people to move after the Budget are growing by the day.
“If Wes is brave and moves he may well be rewarded by being prime minister by Christmas.”
The ambition of Streeting is seen with particular suspicion from some loyal to the prime minister.
A spokesman for Streeting told the BBC “these claims are categorically untrue”.
“Wes’s focus has entirely been on cutting waiting lists for the first time in 15 years, recruiting 2,500 more GPs, and rebuilding the NHS that saved his life,” he added.
The health secretary is due to do a round of interviews on Wednesday morning which were due to be focused on his plans for shaking up the NHS in England.
A government source said Downing Street “has gone into full bunker mode, turning on their most loyal cabinet members for absolutely no reason”.
“Unfortunately there is a pattern of Keir’s team briefing against his own people – they did it to Angela, Lisa, Lucy, now it’s Wes’s turn,” the source added.
“A circular firing squad won’t help the government out of the hole we’re in,” a government source said – referring to the former and current deputy leaders, Angela Rayner and Lucy Powell respectively, and the Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy.
Labour peer Maurice Glasman told BBC Two’s Newsnight he couldn’t see any candidate who could possibly challenge Sir Keir, saying the leadership chatter was “just noise”.
“There isn’t a clear direction, there isn’t a clear strategy… none of the candidates challenging Keir have any idea either,” he said.
When asked if Mahmood would be up to the task of addressing the issues facing Labour, Lord Glasman said: “For me, absolutely. I mean, she’s the only one of really genuine quality of the whole lot, but she’s got a job to do.”
He added that he fully supports the prime minister and was not in favour of any challenge to his leadership.
The prime minister’s supporters are telling Labour MPs they should be careful what they wish for.
They argue a leadership contest would plunge the party into the chaos associated with the final years of the Conservative Party’s stint in office which came to an end last year, and install a leader who does not have their own mandate from the country.
They are trying to convince their colleagues that a contest could destabilise the international markets too, and would jeopardise the good relationship the prime minister has established with President Trump.
But others, including some ministers, fret about what they perceive to be the desperate position the government is in.
“It’s terrible. He [Starmer] is hated out there. It is worse than it got under Corbyn. I don’t see how this is sustainable until May,” one minister said.
Opinion polls suggest Sir Keir is deeply unpopular, perhaps even the most unpopular British prime minister in the history of modern opinion polling.
Polls also suggest the Labour Party has commanded the support of no more than a fifth of the electorate in recent months.
But, a move to replace Sir Keir isn’t straightforward. Under Labour’s rules, it would take 20% of its MPs to nominate a challenger – 81 given the current size of the parliamentary party in the Commons.
A cabinet minister who is supportive of the prime minister sums up the mood among their colleagues as they see it: “There are those who see it as a choice between this Labour government and perfection.
“The closer they can nudge us towards the policies they see as perfect, the happier they are.
