XI Jinping is feared to have found his next target as the Chinese dictator sets his eyes on the Philippines – risking all out war with Donald Trump.
President Xi’s obsession with making China the sole global superpower could see him launch a daring attack and test Washington’s resolve – with a rotting US warship the most likely flashpoint.
China has been trying to grow its dominance in the South China Sea for decades under Xi.
Beijing already claims almost 90 per cent of the waters, but Xi is adamant he should control even more to create a monopoly on trade and naval abilities.
John Hemmings, the director for the National Security Centre at the Henry Jackson Society, told The Sun: “China views the South China Sea as its domain.”
The country with the most to lose if China continues to push for total regional dominance would be the Philippines, experts say.
Manila heavily relies on the South China Sea for national security and economic survival due to it being a key shipping route.
One of the most contentious areas is the sprawling Spratly Islands which is currently claimed by China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.
Made up of over 100 reefs, China has been caught building up new military fortresses on a trio of the surrounding islands.
Shocking surveillance footage shows some of the larger reefs sat in the most strategic positions are now flooded with Chinese military gear.
Features include a 10,000ft runway, hardened aircraft shelters, fuel and munitions storage, radar and sensor arrays, and hangars that can accommodate two dozen combat aircraft or several larger planes.
Despite China’s sweeping attempts to seize more territory, the Philippines have become a thorn in Xi’s side.
Manila has spent years standing up to the Chinese – sparking renewed fears Xi could launch an invasion to get rid of the issue entirely.
But attacking Filipino territory could have dire consequences for Beijing.
The Philippines has a firm agreement with the US stating Washington would support the country with its Navy if it ever comes under attack.
The 1951 US–Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty was recently described as being an “ironclad agreement” by Manila.
Dr Philip Shetler-Jones, an expert on Indo-Pacific security at RUSI, said: “Since President Trump visited Beijing, US-China relations are on a very stable level.
“But the reduction of tension in the relationship means it is perfectly logical and normal for China to turn on US allies in the region.
“China has a track record of taking the opportunity to make a move while assuming America and the rest of the world is distracted.
“It’s all related to the longer term objective that Beijing has to reduce the extent to which American presence in the region restricts China’s influence.
“It wants to be the dominant power in the region. The main thing standing in the way of that is currently the US alliance system.”
Terms of the pact apply to any armed attack on the Philippine armed forces, coast guard, public vessels, or aircraft anywhere in the South China Sea.
Filipino President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has already warned Beijing that any deliberate act of aggression would cross a red line.
Manila would formally invoke the treaty and ask Washington for military protection and naval escorts.
US Navy warships escorting Philippine ships would likely anger Xi, who has battled to make China the top global superpower.
A direct standoff between US and Chinese warships would leave the world in a precarious position – with fears a single shot or misfiring could spark war.
China is known to test its limits with enemies, with the Philippine Coast Guard accusing its Chinese counterpart of firing water cannons at government vessels near a disputed shoal last month.
Footage also showed the Chinese Coast Guard and Philippine Navy hitting each other with oars and batons during a heated encounter at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea.
It marked one of three confrontations between the two countries in the South China Sea in just seven days.
China has also been accused of shining military-grade lasers, temporarily blinding Filipino crew members.
These “grey zone” tactics have so far avoided any US response.
A blockade of a key island on the South China Sea would likely be seen as a major escalation, experts say.
Second Thomas Shoal is currently one of the strongest islands in the South China Sea not under Chinese control.
The Philippines currently has a military outpost on the shoal with marines stationed aboard a rotting World War Two-era warship named the BRP Sierra Madre who have strict instructions to protect their patch.
Due to where the warship sits, it currently blocks China’s expansion in the South China Sea – making the Sierra Madre a political signifier of who controls what in the region.
Both John and Dr Shetler-Jones say the worst- case scenario for the region would be Beijing enforcing a total blockade and surrounding the troops.
An attack by the Chinese could provoke a firefight which would see Manila invoke the treaty and call for US backup.
John said: “If China goes into the Sierra Madre and starts killing Philippine Marines, I believe and I think the US has shown itself committed to to sending in its forces to deal with that situation.”
Dr Shetler-Jones added: “One of the flashpoints is the grounded ship, the Sierra Madre, because it is an unsustainable situation.”
A provisional agreement was reportedly made in July 2025 between Beijing and Manila, which saw China promise not to encroach near the sinking vessel.
In return, the Philippines insisted it would only ever sail to the area to provide food, water and supplies to the marines on board.
But Dr Shetler-Jones believes Xi may be waiting for the Sierra Madre to be in dire need of repair so Manila sends in men to fix the ship.
“The Philippines would need to repair that ship to keep it in place to maintain this political status quo,” the expert said.
“But the Chinese would insist the agreement excluded repairs so would give them reason to kick off.”
Experts have feared a Chinese invasion of Taiwan – which forms the eastern boundary of the South China Sea – could trigger World War Three due to the self-governing island’s close ties with the US.
But John believes the Philippines could be the true next target for Xi who may use it to help him gather key intel for a future Taiwan invasion.
John said: “The Philippines is a sort of test case for how China’s going to behave in in the region.
Source : https://www.the-sun.com/news/16812603/xi-jinping-china-war-philippines-war-trump/
