When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered this week’s attempted assassination of Hamas leaders in Qatar, he took a major gamble in his campaign to pound the group into submission.
With signs growing that the mission failed, that gamble appears to have backfired.
Netanyahu had hoped to kill Hamas’ senior exiled leaders to get closer toward his vision of “total victory” against the militant group that attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and pressure it into surrendering after nearly two years of war in the Gaza Strip.
Instead, Hamas claims its leaders survived, and Netanyahu’s global standing, already badly damaged by the scenes of destruction and humanitarian disaster in Gaza, took another hit.
The airstrike Tuesday has enraged Qatar, an influential U.S. ally that has been a key mediator throughout the war, and drawn heavy criticism across the Arab world. It also has strained relations with the White House and thrown hopes of reaching a ceasefire into disarray, potentially endangering the 20 hostages still believed to be alive in Gaza.
But while the strike marks a setback for Netanyahu, the Israeli leader shows no sign of backing down or halting the war. And with his hard-line coalition still firmly behind him, Netanyahu faces no immediate threat to his rule.
Netanyahu’s hope for an ‘image of victory’ for his government
Five low-level Hamas members and a Qatari security guard were killed in the strike. But Hamas has said the intended target, senior exiled leaders meeting to discuss a new U.S. ceasefire proposal, all survived. The group, however, has not released any photos of the leaders, and Qatar has not commented on their conditions.
If the airstrike had killed the top leadership, the attack could have provided Netanyahu an opportunity declare Hamas’ destruction, said Harel Chorev, an expert on Arab affairs at Tel Aviv University.
“It’s all very symbolic and it’s definitely part of the thing which allows Netanyahu at a certain point to say ‘We won, we killed them all,’” he said.
Israel’s fierce 23-month offensive in Gaza has wiped out all of Hamas’ top leadership inside the territory. But Netanyahu has set out to eradicate the group as part of his goal of “total victory.”
That is now looking increasingly unlikely, making it even harder for Netanyahu to push a ceasefire through his hard-line coalition.
Far-right members of Israel’s governing coalition have cornered Netanyahu, threatening to topple his government unless Israel pushes ahead with an expanded operation in Gaza City, despite serious misgivings by many in the military leadership and widespread opposition among Israel’s public.
A successful operation in Qatar could have allowed Netanyahu to placate the hard-liners, even though it would have eliminated the very officials responsible for negotiating a possible ceasefire.
Burning the channel with Qatar
Israel has had the ability to target Hamas leaders in Doha from the start of the war but did not want to antagonize the Qataris while negotiations took place, Chorev said.
Qatar has helped negotiate two previous ceasefires that have released 148 hostages, including eight bodies, in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners. Israel’s military has rescued just eight hostages alive, and retrieved the bodies of 51 hostages.
While Israel has complained that Qatar was not putting pressure on Hamas, it had continued to leave that channel open — until Tuesday.
“Israel, by the attack, notified the whole world that it gave up on the negotiations,” Chorev said. “They’ve decided to burn the channel with Qatar.”
Asked if ceasefire talks would continue, Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said that after the strike, “I don’t think there’s anything valid” in the current talks. But he did not elaborate and stopped short of saying Qatar would end its mediation efforts.
How Netanyahu hopes to win the release of the remaining hostages remains unclear.
On Thursday, Sheikh Mohammed accused Israel of abandoning the hostages.
“Extremists that rule Israel today do not care about the hostages — otherwise, how do we justify the timing of this attack?” Sheikh Mohammed told the U.N. Security Council.
Nonetheless, he said his country was ready to resume its mediation without giving any indication of next steps. On Friday, Sheikh Mohammed met in Washington with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was scheduled to visit Israel this weekend in a sign of how the Trump administration is trying to balance relations between key Middle East allies.
Straining ties with the US
Netanyahu, who has received ironclad support from the U.S. since President Donald Trump returned to office, appears to have strained ties with his most important ally.
Trump said he was “very unhappy” about the airstrike and assured the Qataris such an attack would not happen again.
Trump, however, has not said whether he would take any punitive action against Israel or indicated that he will pressure Netanyahu to halt the war.
Netanyahu, in the meantime, remains undeterred and threatened additional action if Qatar continues to host the Hamas leadership.
The message to Hamas is clear, he said Thursday: “There is no place where we cannot reach you.”
Little impact on the war in Gaza
Israel is pressing ahead with its expanded offensive aimed at conquering Gaza City. The military has urged a full evacuation of the area holding around 1 million people ahead of an expected invasion.
“Netanyahu’s government is adamant to go on with the military operation in Gaza,” said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
Israel has brushed off calls to halt the war from the United Nations, the European Union and a growing number of major Western countries who plan to recognize a Palestinian state at the U.N. Security Council later this month, she said.
The only one who might be able to change this trajectory is Trump, she added, by telling Israel “enough is enough.”
