Israel’s increased targeting of Lebanese facilities and alleged Hezbollah members could turn into a new war. The other scenario observers are worried about is a low-level, ongoing conflict.
Eleven months after a tenuous ceasefire deal was struck between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, violent encounters are once again intensifying. On Thursday, Israel attacked an alleged Hezbollah training camp in Lebanon’s north-western Bakaa region. A day earlier, an Israeli drone had killed Hezbollah commander Issa Ahmad Karbala in Lebanon’s south, according to a statement by the Israel Defense Forces, or IDF.
Karbala is the latest in a series of fatalities since a US- and France-brokered ceasefire on November 27, 2024 was signed between Israel and Hezbollah. It was meant to end almost a year of limited fighting and two months of full-scale war, during which Israel said it reduced Hezbollah’s weapon arsenal significantly and killed many of the militia’s leaders.
Most recently, Lebanon’s health authorities stated that 274 people have died in Israeli attacks since the ceasefire took effect. In October, the UN further confirmed that 108 of those were civilians or noncombatants.
A recent report by the multinational United Nations Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL), also highlighted that some 950 projectiles were fired from Israel into Lebanon, in addition to 100 Israeli airstrikes between November of last year and mid-October 2025.
During the same period, UNIFIL reported 21 projectiles fired from Lebanon toward Israel.
Violating the deal
Both Israel and Hezbollah have accused the other side of not fulfilling key aspects of the ceasefire. The deal stipulated that Israel would withdraw its troops from Lebanese territory, while Hezbollah disarmed across Lebanon and deployed its forces some 40 kilometers (25 miles) north of Lebanon’s Litani River. Lebanon’s military, meanwhile, would deploy troops alongside United Nations peacekeepers in southern Lebanon.
Israel accuses Hezbollah, whose military wing is designated as a terrorist group by several countries, including the US and the European Union, of trying to rebuild its capabilities instead of giving up their arms.
UN human rights experts have accused Israel of violating terms of the ceasefire by failing to withdraw from southern Lebanon, and has called for all parties to return to the agreement, which had been designed to ensure a “permanent cessation of hostilities,” as then-President of the United States Joe Biden stated at the time.
A Personal Perspective – Syria and Lebanon Are the Next Pieces for Levant Peace
By Ambassador Tom Barrack
October 13, 2025, will be remembered as a defining moment in modern Middle Eastern diplomacy. In Sharm el-Sheikh, world leaders did more than celebrate the release of…
— Ambassador Tom Barrack (@USAMBTurkiye) October 20, 2025
Last week, Tom Barrack, Middle East diplomat and US special envoy for Syria, posted on X that “disarming Hezbollah is … not only Israel’s security imperative; it is opportunity for renewal.”
Stalemate dilemma
Lebanon meanwhile continues to struggle after years of a political vacuum as well as an ongoing economic crisis that was exacerbated by the war from September to November 2024. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health, Israel’s strikes killed around 4,000 people, destroyed parts of Beirut and scores of villages in Lebanon’s south. The World Bank assesses that reconstruction will cost around $11 billion (€9.5bn).
However, much of the promised foreign aid by the US and Saudi Arabia is tied to economic reforms, and Hezbollah’s disarmament.
Only, the plan to disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025 has reached a standstill, Kelly Petillo, Middle East researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told DW.
Hezbollah argues that they won’t surrender their arms as long as Israel continues attacking villages and construction factories that are key for reconstruction. Earlier in August, Hezbollah even warned of a civil war in Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Israel has been keeping its troops at five locations in Lebanon’s south, citing the need for self defense.
“This situation poses a significant threat for Lebanon’s stability, as the Lebanese government under President Joseph Aoun is unable to exert any significant leverage to shift the course of these actors,” ECFR’s Petillo told DW.
In her view, this very stalemate has led Israel to ramp up its military strikes. “It could be a signal that Israel feels like it can go back to a full-scale conflict at any time if it judges that Hezbollah won’t disarm,” she said, warning that such a scenario — in which Israel could strike targets in other countries in a bid to deter threats — could easily become a blueprint for other conflicts in the region.
Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, told the news agency AP in an interview earlier this week that she views the Lebanon scenario as a “lessfire” rather than a ceasefire.
She warned that Lebanon “could well serve as the model for Gaza, essentially giving leeway to Israeli forces to strike whenever they deem a threat without a full resumption of conflict.”
Return to Resolution 1701
Ronnie Chatah, a Beirut-based political analyst highlights several differences between Lebanon and Gaza. While Israel had vowed to eliminate Hamas following the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, this threat has not been extended to Hezbollah.
Chatah also considers the US-brokered peace plan from October 10, 2025, between Israel and Hamas to be different from the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah: “What happened in late 2024 is enhancing the enforcement mechanism of Security Council Resolution 1701,” Chatah said.
In 2006, a month-long war between Hezbollah and Israel — called the Second Lebanon War after the First Lebanon War between 1982 and 1985 — ended with the acceptance of the United Nations Resolution 1701.
The resolution mandated the deployment of Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers to southern Lebanon, the withdrawal of Israeli forces as well as Hezbollah from that same area, and the disarmament of Hezbollah.
However, Hezbollah neither retreated north beyond Lebanon’s Litani River, nor did the militia give up its weapons. In the years since, with Iran’s support, Hezbollah’s military equipment and number of trained fighters have multiplied instead.
Following the Hamas-led attack in Israel on October 7, 2023, tensions escalated further when Hezbollah started targeting Israel in a bid to support Gaza. Around 60,000 Israelis had to evacuate the area, as well as some 110,000 Lebanese on the northern side of the border.
Source : https://www.dw.com/en/lebanon-attacks-stoke-fear-of-renewed-escalation/a-74474581
