As tensions rise across the Middle East, Kenyans fear economic shocks, disrupted exports and risks to the more than 400,000 Kenyans working in Gulf states.
Kenyan President William Ruto in the weeks leading up to the US-Israel war with Iran called for restraint and dialogue, urging de-escalation while reaffirming Kenya’s long-standing support for multilateral diplomacy and international law. Now he has spoken out against the war.
“Kenya strongly condemns the strikes on the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain in the evolving conflict in the Middle East,” Ruto said on Monday.
“It is evident that the regionalization of this conflict poses a grave threat to international peace and security. Kenya calls for urgent multi-stakeholder engagement towards de-escalation.”
Kenya has long promoted dialogue and peaceful dispute resolution, and Nairobi’s messaging has reflected that tradition.
At the same time, the government has been careful not to alienate key economic and strategic partners in the region, where thousands of Kenyans are employed and where significant trade ties exist.
Opposition leaders have responded with a mix of caution and criticism. Some have questioned whether the government is doing enough to prepare for possible economic fallout. Others have pressed for clearer communication regarding contingency plans for Kenyans abroad.
Analysts note that Kenya is geographically distant from the conflict but economically and socially linked to the Middle East.
How do Kenyans feel the impact of the US-Israel war with Iran?
In Nairobi, DW spoke to Kenyans affected by the early stages of the conflict.
“We are already feeling the pressure,” said Nairobi-based logistics businessman Vincent Kipngeno, who exports horticultural products to markets in the region.
Kipngeno noted that fuel prices have started climbing, which he said “immediately pushes up the cost of everything we do, from transporting goods to refrigeration and air freight for horticultural exports going to Gulf markets.”
“Our trucks, cold storage and flights all depend on fuel, so when oil prices spike because of war in the Middle East, the expenses hit us right away. What worries us even more is the uncertainty,” Kipngeno told DW. “The Gulf is a key market for Kenyan exporters, and if the conflict disrupts shipping routes or airspace, delays and higher insurance costs will follow.”
“For businesses like ours, even the possibility of escalation forces companies to rethink contracts, schedules, and pricing, and in the end it is Kenyan consumers who start paying more,” Kipngeno said.
Aisha Juma, a clothes trader in Nairobi’s Eastleigh market, popularly known as Little Mogadishu, said traders are already feeling the effects.
“For traders like us in Eastleigh, the effects start almost immediately when tensions rise in the Middle East, because Kenya relies heavily on fuel coming through that region, and fuel powers almost everything in this country, from transport and farming to manufacturing and small businesses like ours,” she said.
“When prices begin to rise, the cost of moving goods from the port to Nairobi also increases,” Juma told DW, adding that rising transport costs force suppliers to increase prices, ultimately making even basic goods more expensive.
“Many businesses here depend on goods that move through Gulf trade routes, so instability there creates a lot of anxiety,” she said.
Kenyan workers in the Gulf at risk
More than 400,000 Kenyans live and work in Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Many are employed in domestic work, construction, hospitality and aviation.
The Gulf region is also a key source of remittances to Kenya, which contribute significantly to household incomes and foreign exchange reserves.
As tensions rise, families in Kenya have expressed concern. Reports of airspace closures, missile exchanges or security alerts in parts of the region quickly ripple through Kenyan social media and WhatsApp groups.
Families fear growing regional risks
For some, the fear is not only about immediate safety, but about job security if companies scale back operations or if travel routes are disrupted.
“Many of us are following the news every day because what happens here affects our livelihoods and our safety because they are bombing residential areas where we live and hotels where we work,” said Peter Otieno, a Kenyan construction worker based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
“If companies start slowing down projects or flights are disrupted, the first thing people worry about is whether contracts will continue. Back home our families depend on the money we send, so when tensions rise in the region, it creates a lot of anxiety for workers like us.”
Energy vulnerability and fuel concerns
Kenya imports the bulk of its petroleum products, and global oil prices are highly sensitive to instability in the Middle East, a region that accounts for a significant share of global oil production and shipping.
Even if Kenya does not import directly from conflict zones, global price spikes can quickly translate into higher landed costs.
In recent years, Kenya has experienced fuel price volatility linked to global shocks, including the war in Ukraine, and supply chain disruptions.
A sustained escalation in the Middle East could drive up international crude prices, putting pressure on the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s monthly price reviews.
Higher fuel costs could affect multiple sectors of the economy, from transport and food prices to manufacturing and electricity generation.
Kenyan tea exports under strain
Beyond energy, the Gulf region is an important market for Kenyan exports, including tea, horticultural produce and other agricultural goods.
The Middle East also serves as a major transit hub for global trade, with key shipping lanes such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz playing a critical role in maritime logistics. Any disruption to shipping routes could increase freight costs or delay deliveries, affecting exporters and potentially lead to delays or changes in contract timelines.
XN Iraki, a prominent Kenyan economist and associate professor at the University of Nairobi’s Faculty of Business and Management Sciences, says tensions in the Middle East could have economic effects for Kenya due to trade ties with the region.
“Remember also that Iran is a very big market for our tea, and if we don’t export tea there then we are affected by that,” Iraki told DW.
According to the Tea Board of Kenya and industry data reported in March 2026, Iran imported approximately 13 million kilograms of Kenyan tea in 2024, with a valuation of roughly 4.26 billion Kenyan shillings (around $33 million/ €28 million).
“We also export a lot of fresh flowers, vegetables and meat to the Middle East, and that is also affected,” Iraki said.
Source : https://www.dw.com/en/kenya-braces-as-middle-east-conflict-escalates/a-76218179
