The Strait of Hormuz is, by some accounts, named for a Zoroastrian deity destined to emerge victorious after a 9,000-year standoff with an adversary.
Iran’s leaders feel their own victory is at hand and won’t require the same epic patience.
They are betting that military pressure will ultimately force the United States to accept their control over the crucial waterway for global energy — and that time is on their side.
They know about the diminishing stockpiles of key U.S. weapons such as advanced missile interceptors. They know the war is deeply unpopular with Americans. They know that as long as the strait is largely closed, the price of gas and other goods will stay high ahead of U.S. congressional elections in November. They know that trying to open it by force would be costly and may require American ground troops. They know their Houthi allies in Yemen could widen the war and disrupt another major trade route.
By that logic, U.S. President Donald Trump has no choice but to capitulate.
But Iran’s strategy carries risks.
Trump points to strikes that have decimated Iran’s top leadership, navy and air force. He alternates between threatening escalation and saying talks are going well. Iran’s own economy has been battered, in part because of a U.S. blockade. Iranians rose up in mass protests just months ago and could do so again.
And Iran’s leaders need only look to how Trump’s “short-term excursion” to the Middle East has bogged down to be reminded that wars rarely turn out as expected.
An evolving deal could give Iran a major win
Iran says it is close to reaching a deal with Oman to manage the strait, which runs between the countries. But on Saturday, Tehran said the strait will not open until the U.S. “corrects its behavior,” saying it must permanently end the war, lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports and withdraw its military from the area. It also must “completely compensate” Iran for war damage, lift sanctions and “unconditionally” release frozen assets.
