Iran is preparing a broader and more forceful response if the United States resumes large-scale military attacks, sources said, while continuing a diplomatic push that Iranian officials privately see as unlikely to succeed.
The planning reflects a conviction within Iran’s leadership that any renewed US campaign must be met with a stronger response than before, even as Tehran seeks to avert escalation through talks.
Senior commanders are reviewing plans to expand potential targets beyond US-linked assets to countries that support US military operations and possibly to locations outside the Middle East, according to three senior Iranian officials and an insider familiar with the discussions.
Since President Masoud Pezeshkian returned from New York last week, commanders and senior officials have focused on the scope and timing of any response if Washington strikes again.
No final decision has been made, but planning has intensified as neither side shows signs of willingness to compromise.
The deliberations follow seven months of conflict that began with US-Israeli attacks on February 28. Although an April 8 ceasefire ended the 40-day war, hostilities have continued sporadically since then.
Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Tehran remained uncertain whether President Donald Trump would launch another major campaign or opt for more limited attacks, such as strikes on nuclear facilities.
“But they seem determined not to respond symbolically to a symbolic move and instead to escalate in the hope of reestablishing deterrence,” Azizi said.
Tehran is also weighing the political risks for Trump of a prolonged conflict. Polls show the war has been unpopular with Americans, while higher fuel prices remain a concern ahead of the midterm elections.
Two of the officials said Tehran had instructed allied groups in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq to be ready to support Iran in the event of a renewed large-scale US attack.
The guidance, they said, was to prepare for a coordinated response stretching “from the Strait of Hormuz to US interests in the region and outside the Middle East.”
DIPLOMACY AND ESCALATION
However, Tehran is still keeping open a channel for negotiations even as it readies for a wider war.
Underlying Iran’s calculations is a second concern: whether its economy can withstand a prolonged confrontation under a US blockade that has cut off oil exports, a critical source of revenue. Years of sanctions and mounting economic hardship have already placed growing pressure on ordinary Iranians.
At last week’s United Nations General Assembly in New York, Tehran submitted a proposal to Washington through Qatari mediators that, if accepted, could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt hostilities across the region within seven days.
Iranian authorities say the proposal calls for an end to fighting, the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports, the release of at least $12 billion in frozen Iranian funds and a waiver of oil sanctions.
Trump said on Saturday he had rejected the proposal. Iranian state media reported, however, that a US response was delivered to Tehran through Qatar on Tuesday and is now under review.
Iranian sources said Washington wants Iran’s disputed nuclear programme included in negotiations, but Tehran insists that the nuclear talks can only begin after its seven conditions are met, not before.
“Even if Iran does not reject the US response outright and indirect talks continue, it is very unlikely that the two sides will reach an agreement,” said one of the officials.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said prospects for diplomacy remained limited.
“Iran cannot afford continuation of US blockades that could be a major game changer essentially taking the oxygen out of the lungs of the regime…escalation at this point is conceivable,” Vatanka said.
