Tesla boss Elon Musk’s post on India’s falling fertility rate has revived the debate over why fewer children are being born in India. Experts say the decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) is reflective of rising living costs, financial development, urban lifestyles and changing family aspirations and dynamics.
An uncomfortable but important topic has found its way back into the public discourse of the world’s most populous country, India. Thanks to Tesla boss Elon Musk. The American tech tycoon, who spent the weekend highlighting falling birth rates in the US and other countries such as Australia, weighed in on India’s declining fertility rate. Musk noted that India had slipped below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 births per woman, meaning couples are no longer having enough children, on average, to replace their own generation.
“India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago,” Musk wrote on X on Saturday, sharing a graphic linked to a report from The Economist.
Musk’s post and the discussions that followed since, have made way for several important questions about India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR).
How concerning is India’s falling fertility rate? Is India, said to be reaping a demographic dividend, headed towards the greying troubles that Japan, South Korea and parts of Europe are grappling with?
When will the impact of an ageing India become visible? Why are Indians having fewer children? Is it because life has become more expensive? Is it because women today have greater control over their lives and reproductive decisions? Or is fertility decline simply an inevitable consequence of development and women’s empowerment?
While the answers to the contributing factors are many, experts and economists are divided as well. Some economists blame rising costs. Others say development itself lowers fertility. Some point to women’s empowerment and aspirations. Others argue that couples today simply desire fewer children than previous generations did.
It is very much possible that all these factors have been working together. There’s a lack of consensus on which factor makes its impact on the dipping birth rate in India the most.
WHAT IS THE POPULATION REPORT ON INDIA SHARED BY ELON MUSK?
The report shared by Elon Musk titled, ‘India’s population will soon be falling—probably quite fast’, used the United Nations Population Fund’s 2025 State of World Population Report, which estimated India’s total fertility rate (TFR) at 1.9 births per woman.
In fact, India’s TFR has been declining steadily for decades. It dropped from a high of around 5.7 in the 1950s to 2.0 in 2019-21. In 2023-2024, it was recorded at 1.9.
A TFR of below two means that the average Indian woman (15-49 years old) is giving birth to fewer than two children in her lifetime.
Replacement-level fertility of 2.1 means that, on average, every couple has enough children to replace themselves in the next generation. If average fertility stays below the 2.1 level for a long time, the population of a country begins to age and decline.
Experts speaking to India Today Digital and on public platforms suggest that there is no single answer as to why. Or, which factor is driving the dip. Instead, India’s fertility story seems to have been influenced by various factors like economics, development, urbanisation, gender roles, aspirations and the changing idea of the family itself.
“The decline in the fertility rate generally has been a function of development,” Nilanjan Ghosh, Vice President for Development Studies at ORF, told India Today Digital. “If you look at states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, which score better on development indicators, they are also the ones where fertility has flattened much faster.” He also cautioned about a situation where India could be “ageing faster than getting richer”.
HOW CONCERNING IS INDIA’S FALLING FERTILITY RATE?
Economists are clear that India is not facing an immediate demographic crisis due to India failing to reach the desired 2.1 replacement rate. India’s population is still growing and is expected to continue growing before eventually peaking. Yet, they caution that demographic transitions take place gradually and slowly. But it is difficult to reverse once these trends are firmly established.
Economist and Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council member Sanjeev Sanyal, said he was among those warning that India should pay attention to the trend before it becomes a bigger challenge.
“Been making this point for the last two decades. It is not a ‘crisis’ yet. These things take a long time to build up. However, Indians need to understand that the peak number of live births in India was back in 2001. But for longevity gains, the population would have started to decline in the 2030s,” Sanyal posted on X.
Sanyal’s observation is important because he highlighted the relation between the current population numbers and long-term demographic momentum.
Even if India’s population continues growing for years, the number of births has already been moving in the opposite direction. Countries such as Japan and South Korea are the red flags. Vietnam abolished its two-child policy in 2025. The TFR fell over decades. Once the trend became entrenched, governments found it difficult to reverse it despite spending billions on incentives and family-support programmes.
This was highlighted by economist and a member of the PM’s Economic Advisory Council, Shamika Ravi, during a podcast on news agency ANI.
