Chennai is currently experiencing a lack of significant rainfall, despite a low-pressure system forming over the Strait of Malacca, expected to develop into a depression by November 24. While districts in Tamil Nadu may receive heavy rains, forecasts suggest Chennai will likely see only light to moderate showers.
Chennai’s uneasy wait for meaningful rain continues, even as a new low-pressure system brews over the Strait of Malacca and moves into the Bay of Bengal. While several districts in Tamil Nadu are expected to see heavy rainfall over the next three days, Chennai may once again be spared the worst, with early forecasts showing only light to moderate showers for the city.
The developing system has already triggered a flurry of speculation among weather models, with predictions split on whether it could intensify into the season’s next cyclone — and if so, where it might head.
A System That’s Growing, But Uncertain
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed that an upper-air cyclonic circulation persists over the central parts of the Strait of Malacca, extending up to 5.8 km above mean sea level, as per a TOI report. This feature has now developed into a low-pressure area, which is expected to intensify into a depression around 24 November over the southeast Bay of Bengal.
From there, the system is likely to move west-northwestwards, strengthening further over the southwest Bay during the following 48 hours.
However, the key question remains unanswered: Will it become a cyclone, and will it hit Tamil Nadu?
Weather models remain divided. Some show the system tracking towards north Andhra Pradesh, while others suggest it may curve away towards Bangladesh, reducing its impact on Tamil Nadu. The IMD’s cyclogenesis probability chart indicates:
- No depression formation in the first 48 hours
- Low probability between 48 and 72 hours
- Moderate probability only after 144 hours
Manorama Mohanty, Director of the Bhubaneswar IMD office, said it’s too early to call it a cyclone.
“We have so far forecast only a depression. We will issue more information after the low-pressure area forms on November 22,” she said.
Rain for Delta and South TN, Not So Much for Chennai
While cyclone development remains uncertain, rainfall is a more immediate concern — especially for the delta districts, south coastal Tamil Nadu and adjoining regions, which are expected to receive heavy downpours for at least the next three days.
Chennai, on the other hand, may only see one or two spells of light to moderate rain, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, according to the IMD bulletin.
Daytime skies are likely to stay partly cloudy, with temperatures hovering around 31–32°C, and minimum temperatures settling near 25°C.
Weather blogger Pradeep John, in an online update, said heavy rainfall in the southern districts would be driven by the system’s movement towards the Comorin Sea.
“The system is complex, so we need to wait for more clarity,” he cautioned, adding that Chennai could still experience sudden intense spells till Tuesday.
Chennai, on the other hand, may only see one or two spells of light to moderate rain, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, according to the IMD bulletin.
Daytime skies are likely to stay partly cloudy, with temperatures hovering around 31–32°C, and minimum temperatures settling near 25°C.
Weather blogger Pradeep John, in an online update, said heavy rainfall in the southern districts would be driven by the system’s movement towards the Comorin Sea.
“The system is complex, so we need to wait for more clarity,” he cautioned, adding that Chennai could still experience sudden intense spells till Tuesday.
Chennai’s Weak Northeast Monsoon Shows in the Numbers
After mild showers on Friday — 1 cm in Nungambakkam and 2.9 mm in Meenambakkam — the city recorded only trace amounts of rain on Saturday.
The data paints a difficult picture:
- Chennai: 43 cm (23% below normal)
- Kancheepuram: 36 cm (9% below normal)
- Tiruvallur: 47 cm (10% above normal)
- Chengalpattu: 28 cm (41% below normal)
- Tamil Nadu overall: 29 cm (6% below normal)
With only intermittent rain so far, Chennai’s Northeast Monsoon performance continues to disappoint.
Satellite Images Show Strong Clouds — But Track Still Unclear
INSAT-3DS satellite images from early Saturday showed:
- Intense convection over the south Bay of Bengal and south Andaman Sea
- Moderate to strong convection over the central Bay
This suggests plenty of moisture and favourable atmospheric conditions, but not enough evidence yet to confirm a cyclone or its landfall.
Farmers in Odisha Move Quickly as Rain Threat Looms
While Tamil Nadu waits, the system is already influencing behaviour elsewhere. In coastal Odisha, farmers have begun harvesting their nearly mature paddy crop early, anticipating potential rain from next week. The state agriculture department, however, has not issued any formal advisory yet.
