BJP’s caste census strike: Why did Modi government make a U-turn?

Since OBC reservations currently stand at 27 per cent, and SC-STs enjoy almost a 100 per cent reservation vis-a-vis their population, raising the cap is likely to benefit OBCs. The Congress hopes to break the BJP’s hold on the OBC vote bloc, making social justice its main plank in the plenary session held in Gujarat. The Congress has realised that without this, it can’t stop the saffron party juggernaut in any upcoming election.

2) Setback in 2024 Lok Sabha polls: The BJP shied away from conducting a caste census as it was able to consolidate the support of OBCs over the years, doubling from 22 per cent in 2009 to 44 per cent in 2019. And for good reason. The prime minister and many BJP chief ministers are OBC. The party has given OBC leaders a lot of representation through election tickets and central and state cabinet roles. This is how it wooed OBCs from the Congress and regional parties.

In the 2024 general elections, however, the BJP did not perform as expected, falling short of a simple majority. The National Democratic Alliance couldn’t even cross 300 seats against the party’s declaration of “char sau paar”. According to CSDS data, the NDA lost four per cent of the Hindu Upper-OBC support while the INDIA bloc gained 11 per cent support from Upper-OBCs and seven per cent from Lower-OBCs.

These seemingly small figures for the NDA mask a significant realignment, especially in the Hindi heartland. In Bihar, while the NDA won 30 out of the 40 seats, it lost nine seats compared to 2019. While the NDA recorded a 12 per cent drop in Kurmi-Koeri support and a dramatic 24 per cent decline among Other-OBC votes, the INDIA bloc gained nine and just over one per cent respectively. In Uttar Pradesh, the NDA won just 36 of the 80 seats, a loss of 28 compared to 2019, as Akhilesh Yadav’s Pichade (Backward classes), Dalit, and Alpsankhyak (Minorities) formula (also called PDA) trumped Hindutva. The loss of support was even more striking: 19 per cent amongst Kurmi-Koeri and 13 per cent amongst Other-OBCs.

3) Upcoming Bihar and UP elections: Caste is cast in stone in Indian politics, with 55 per cent of voters preferring leaders of their caste as per a 2018 Aziz Premji Institute study. As Bihar gears up for another electoral battle, the contest is expected to be tight, given Nitish Kumar’s declining health and the burden of a 20-year anti-incumbency. The BJP-led NDA coalition, once considered invincible in its ability to forge social coalitions, appears to be facing a growing challenge from the Opposition’s renewed focus on caste calculations and attempts to expand its vote base beyond Muslims and Yadavs.

This isn’t a sudden development. In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, when Nitish Kumar was still firmly in the NDA camp, the coalition had already lost 10 per cent of OBC/EBC support while the Mahagathbandhan gained seven per cent. That election ended in a virtual tie with both alliances securing around 37 per cent vote share each, with the difference being less than 12,000 votes.

In Bihar, Nitish Kumar has already conducted a caste survey, triggering a credit war between the Mahagathbandhan and the NDA — a clear indication of its political potency. The Mahagathbandhan has gone a step further, announcing its intention to breach the 50 per cent reservation ceiling established by the Supreme Court. Nitish Kumar’s government had even raised the reservation cap to 65 per cent in Bihar, a move eventually struck down by the courts as unconstitutional. Yet the political messaging was clear: the Janata Dal (United) leader understands the power of caste arithmetic in Bihar’s complex social landscape. Meanwhile, the NDA remained conspicuously non-committal on this controversial issue.

In UP, where polls are due in 2027, the BJP needs to puncture Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA formula. Though in by-polls, the BJP emerged victorious, it knows very well that incumbents hold an edge as voters lose interest. The Samajwadi Party marched ahead of the BJP in grabbing the non-Jatav votes, 56 per cent versus 29 per cent. And if it succeeds in pulling the Jatav votes from the Bahujan Samaj party, whose 13 per cent vote share will be up for grabs, it’ll be bad news for the BJP.

Source: https://www.indiatoday.in/opinion/story/bjp-caste-census-strike-why-did-modi-government-make-a-u-turn-2718168-2025-05-01