In announcing the decision to postpone some tariffs on Mexico for another month, US President Donald Trump was at pains to praise his Mexican counterpart, Claudia Sheinbaum.
“I did this as an accommodation, and out of respect for, President Sheinbaum”, he wrote on his social media site, Truth Social. “Our relationship has been a very good one and we are working hard, together, on the border.”
The comments were in stark contrast to the kind of language he has used for the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, who he continues to refer to as “Governor Trudeau”, while calling Canada “the 51st State”.
The war of words – if not yet trade – continues between Canada and the Trump administration with Prime Minister Trudeau calling the entire tariffs policy “dumb” and the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, calling him a “numbskull” in return.
The difference in tone between the US neighbour to the north and the one to the south could hardly be more striking.
Some, particularly in Claudia Sheinbaum’s camp, see it as evidence of her deft handling of an unpredictable leader in the White House, one who has made several bold statements of intent, only for them to be rolled back or watered down.
Certainly, President Sheinbaum has delivered a singular message from the start: Mexicans should “remain calm” over Trump, she has said, insisting that “cooler heads will prevail.”
In that sense, it has been so far, so good for the Mexican leader.
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Twice, now, in two months she has managed to stave off the imposition of sweeping 25% tariffs on Mexican goods through a last-minute phone call to President Trump – even though he said there was “no room” for negotiation.
It is testament to her diplomacy that Trump seems to genuinely appreciate her tone, clarity and overall demeanour in their interactions.
She has refused to accept publicly that Mexico hasn’t done enough on either of the main border issues on which Trump is demanding action from his neighbours: fentanyl trafficking and undocumented immigration north.
She began Thursday’s morning press briefing by referring to new figures from the US Customs and Border Protection agency which show seizures of fentanyl have dropped to 263 kilos, their lowest levels in 3 years. It represents a 75% drop in the last six months of her presidency.
When tariffs were avoided in February, Sheinbaum agreed to deploy 10,000 troops to the US-Mexico border.
Her administration has also extradited (although they prefer the word “expelled”) 29 drug cartel figures to the US to face trial on charges from murder to money laundering, including a top drug lord, Rafael Caro Quintero, who has been wanted by the US authorities since the mid-1980s.
Those may well have been the measures Trump was referring to when he said the two countries were “working hard, together” on border security.
Furthermore, she has often thrown the ball back in the US president’s direction.
Where do the guns which arm the cartels come from, she asks rhetorically, openly calling for the US to do more to curb the flow of weapons south and tackle its demand for illegal drugs. The drugs may come from Latin America, she points out, but the market for their consumption is overwhelmingly in the US.
Even when the Trump administration recently designated six Mexican cartels as “foreign terrorist organisations”, it seemed to strengthen her hand.
That’s because her administration is currently embroiled in a legal battle with US gun manufacturers over negligence. If US weapons-makers have allowed their products to reach terrorists rather than mere criminals, Mexico could expand its lawsuit, she said, to include a new charge of “complicity” with terror groups.
And yet while President Sheinbaum is enjoying a strong start to her presidency – both domestically and in the eyes of the world – for her handling of Trump, it is worth stressing that these are early days in their bilateral relationship.
“I think she has played the hand she has been dealt pretty well”, said Mexican economist, Valeria Moy. “I’m not sure it’s time for celebration just yet. But I think she has done what she can in the face of the threat of tariffs. It makes little sense for either of side to enter into a trade war.”
The key to Sheinbaum’s success seems to have been in refusing to back down on unreasonable requests or matters of real importance, while similarly not appearing subservient or acquiescent to the White House’s demands.
That is not an easy path to tread.
On some questions – the Gulf of Mexico being renamed by Trump as the Gulf of America, for example – she can afford to remain above the fray knowing that most people around the world are unlikely to adopt his preferred terminology.
On others, particularly tariffs, the stakes are considerably higher; there’s a danger that the constant back-and-forth and instability on the issue could push the Mexican economy into recession.
The Mexican peso weakened again during this latest episode and, although Sheinbaum claims the country’s economy is strong, the markets would clearly prefer a more reliable and solid relationship with the US. Mexico remains the US’s biggest trading partner, after all.
When I spoke to President Sheinbaum on the campaign trail last year, shortly before she made history by becoming Mexico’s first woman president, she said she would have no problem working with a second Trump presidency and that she would always “defend” what was right for Mexicans – including the millions who reside in the US.
