Ukraine has penetrated Russian airspace with unprecedented numbers of drones, denying Russia windfall oil profits.
The warning came after Ukraine reached a new series of agreements with European defence companies this week.
“We consider this decision to be a deliberate step leading to a sharp escalation of the military and political situation on the entire European continent and creeping transformation of these countries into a strategic rear for Ukraine,” said a statement from the Russian defence ministry on Wednesday this week.
Russia warned of “unpredictable consequences” and said that “the moves of European leaders are increasingly dragging these countries into the war with Russia.”
It published a list of addresses of European companies involved in joint weapons production with Ukraine.
Dmitry Medvedev, a former president of Russia and deputy head of its National Security Council, later clarified that this amounted to “a list of potential targets for the Russian armed forces”.
The previous day, Germany agreed to invest 300 million euros ($355m) in Ukraine’s long-range strike capability and would separately invest in 5,000 mid-range attack drones to be used against Russian battlefield supply lines.
Norway also signed an agreement with Ukraine that will lead to joint production of drones, and donated 560 million euros ($661.5m) to support the Ukrainian front lines with drones.
The Netherlands announced 248 million euros ($293m) in drone support, and Belgium pledged 85 million euros ($100m).
Putin’s missing millions
According to reports, the world’s 100 biggest oil companies, including Russia’s Gazprom, have made a $23bn windfall profit in March as a result of the Iran war, which has triggered a global oil supply crisis.
But Russia has seen much of that windfall evaporate as a result of Ukraine’s strikes targeting its oil export terminals and inland infrastructure.
Reuters reported that Russia had missed out on 40 percent of its potential bonanza because Ukraine had destroyed its ability to export at least 2 million barrels of oil a day.
Those Ukrainian strikes have hit a range of targets, from drilling platforms to pipelines and their pumping stations, offloading terminals and refineries.
In the past week alone, Ukraine struck two drilling platforms in the northern Caspian Sea and two oil pumping stations in Volgograd and Krasnodar Krai; an oil depot in the city of Tver northwest of Moscow; the Cherepovets Azot ammonia plant in the Volga region; the Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant in the Republic of Bashkortostan; and the oil export terminal and refinery at Tuapse on the Black Sea.
These strikes have all been confirmed by geolocated video footage or by Russian officials.
“Today, our deep strikes are no longer a sensation,” said Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, articulating how routine its ability to reach deep inside Russia had become.
His deputy defence minister, Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov, pointed out that Russia could not produce enough air defence systems to protect its vast territory, and posted photographs of Russian improvised air defences, including truck-mounted R-77-1 air-to-air missiles.
“Russia does not appear to have fully developed or deployed mobile fire teams, drone interceptors, or other low-cost distributable systems to defend against repeated massed Ukrainian drone strikes,” wrote the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
Ukraine, on the other hand, has since last year built up its domestic arms industry to be able to strike Russia without Western-supplied kit – and permission.
Zelenskyy released a video on Tuesday this week, now named Arms Makers’ Day, showcasing 56 types of Ukrainian-built weapons, including 31 types of drones.
“Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the capabilities of the Ukrainian defence industry have increased by more than 50 times,” said former Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, who was instrumental in building up drone production during 2025.
Ukraine’s devastating toll
Ukraine’s most devastating damage on Russian oil infrastructure came in the last 10 days of March and the first 10 days of April, with Russia’s oil terminals at the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga particularly hard-hit since March 22.
Satellite photography suggested that Primorsk had lost 40 percent of its storage facilities and Ust-Luga, 30 percent. Market sources also said Russian energy company Novatek had suspended gas condensate processing and exports at Ust-Luga.
The two ports were still unable to handle oil shipments on April 3, industry sources told Reuters. Finnish maritime officials told the agency in early April that shipments from the two ports were sharply down to “individual vessels” instead of a weekly average of 40 to 50.
When an Aframax tanker did dock at Ust-Luga on April 5 – the first ship to attempt loading crude oil there in many days – Ukraine struck the port again the same night, setting alight three 20,000-cubic-metre (706,300cu-foot) storage tanks.
That same day, Ukraine also struck Primorsk and oil loading facilities at the Sheskharis oil terminal on the Black Sea, which is operated by Russian oil major Transneft. Geolocated footage showed fires at oil tanker berths there.
Satellite photography suggested offloadings had still not resumed on April 14.
