With U.S.-brokered Ukraine peace talks on hold due to the war in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to try to expand his military gains via new offensives against his neighbor that could put even more pressure on Kyiv.
Windfall revenues from surging global oil prices are filling Moscow’s war coffers and U.S. air defense assets are being drained quickly by Iranian attacks across the Gulf, raising concerns that little will be left available for Ukraine in the fifth year of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Ukraine’s European allies have promised to maintain their steadfast support, but continuous bickering over a major 90 billion-euro ($106 billion) European Union loan to cover Kyiv’s military and economic needs for two years has reflected the mounting challenges.
The refusal by NATO allies to commit naval assets to help restore tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has drawn an angry rebuke from President Donald Trump, highlighting another emerging fault line that is fraught with potential repercussions for Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sought to hold Washington’s attention by offering its expertise in defending against Iranian Shahed drones, sending over 200 military experts to the Gulf. Trump, however, has shrugged off Zelenskyy’s offer of help, saying the U.S. doesn’t need Kyiv’s assistance.
As new signs of a rift emerge in Western alliances, Putin and his generals are pondering plans for the spring and summer campaign across more than the 1,200-kilometer (about 750-mile) front line.
A possible new push from Russia
Russia’s military appears to be readying for a renewed push to claim the part of the eastern Donetsk region that remains under Ukraine’s control, as well as possible offensives in several other sectors.
Analysts have observed that Moscow has been building up reserves and its operations are expected to gain tempo as the spring warmth dries the terrain.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, or ISW, has noted that Russian troops have stepped up artillery barrage and drone strikes, seeking to weaken Ukrainian defenses before ground attacks.
Ukraine has sought to derail the Kremlin’s plans by launching counterattacks in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, where Russian forces have sought to carve out bridgeheads with an aim to advance toward the regional capitals, which are key industrial hubs.
The ISW said in a recent battlefield assessment that Ukraine’s successful retaliation in the Dnipropetrovsk region will likely continue to force Russia to “choose between defending against the Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating manpower and materiel for offensive operations elsewhere” on the front, possibly spoiling the anticipated Russian offensive.
It also noted that Ukrainian forces have stepped up their midrange strikes against Russian logistics, military equipment and manpower to try to derail the expected offensive
Russian war bloggers warn that Moscow would need to bolster its forces drastically to conduct any major offensive, something that raises challenges for the Kremlin.
After the widely unpopular “partial mobilization” of 300,000 reservists early in the war that prompted hundred of thousands to flee the country to avoid being drafted, the Russian military has changed tactics, relying on volunteers and recruiting foreign fighters attracted by reasonably high wages and other benefits.
Putin said Russia has about 700,000 troops fighting in Ukraine, about the same number that Ukraine reportedly has.
‘Slow war of attrition’
After quick maneuvers by large numbers of tanks and mechanized infantry early in Russia’s 2022 invasion, the fighting has morphed into a war of attrition in which small groups of soldiers fight grinding, house-to-house battles in the ruined towns and villages of eastern Ukraine. The ubiquitous drones have restricted the concentration of troops for any big moves.
Russia also has relied on long-range missiles and drones to pummel Ukraine’s energy facilities and other vital infrastructure.
For the past year, Russia has been able to infiltrate and undermine Ukrainian defensive positions due to the “growing lethality” of Moscow’s attacks and Kyiv’s dwindling troop strength, said analyst Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute.
“Russia is likely able to maintain its current rate of recruitment, despite the punishing rate of casualties” inflicted by Ukraine, he added.
As part of preparing for new offensives, Russia increasingly has sought to enlist students into its newly formed Drone Forces, offering relatively high pay and deployment at a safe distance from the front.
Tulsi Gabbard, the U.S. director of national intelligence, told the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday that “Russia has maintained the upper hand in the war against Ukraine.”
She said the U.S.-led talks between Ukraine and Russia “are ongoing. Until such an agreement is met, Moscow is likely to continue fighting a slow war of attrition until they view their objectives have been achieved.”
Entrenched positions
Several rounds of negotiations have produced no visible breakthrough as the parties remain sharpy divided on key issues.
Putin wants Ukraine to withdraw its forces from the four regions that Russia has illegally annexed but never fully captured, renounce its bid to join NATO, sharply cut its army and drop restrictions against Russian language and the Moscow-affiliated Orthodox Church -– demands Zelenskyy has rejected.
Zelenskyy has called for a ceasefire, U.S.-backed security guarantees to prevent Moscow invading again and has rejected claims over Ukrainian territory.
Kyiv’s European allies accuse Moscow of dragging out the talks in hopes of making more gains and insisted that Europe must be present at the negotiations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected their participation, saying “we don’t consider it necessary or expedient.”
Moscow says it won’t allow any European troops to monitor a prospective ceasefire and will view them as legitimate targets.
Zelenskyy said he sent a team of negotiators for talks in the U.S. on Saturday, but Peskov said Russia won’t join them, adding that the time and venue for another round of trilateral negotiations haven’t been set yet.
Sam Greene, a professor at King’s College London, said in a commentary that Moscow’s strategy was obvious -– “engaging with Washington just enough to prevent Ukraine from getting what it needed to shift the balance on the ground, and just enough to keep the Europeans at bay, but not enough to make real progress.”
