Sir Keir Starmer is expected to announce the UK’s recognition of a Palestinian state in a statement on Sunday afternoon.
The prime minister said in July that the UK would shift its position unless Israel met several conditions, including agreeing to a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and committing to a long-term peace process leading to a Palestinian state co-existing alongside Israel.
The Israeli leadership has ruled this out since the start of the war following Hamas’s attack in southern Israel on 7 October 2023 in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage.
The PM’s move has drawn fierce criticism from the Israeli government, families of hostages held in Gaza and some Conservatives.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously said recognition of a Palestinian state “rewards terror”.
The decision to recognise a Palestinian state represents a major change in UK foreign policy, after successive governments said recognition should come as part of a peace process and at a time of maximum impact.
However, ministers argue there was a moral responsibility to act to keep hopes of a long-term peace alive.
Efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza – let alone a long-term solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict – have faltered. Israel recently sparked international outrage when it carried out an air strike on a Hamas negotiating team in Qatar.
Government sources said the situation on the ground had also worsened significantly in the last few weeks. They cited images showing starvation and violence in Gaza, which Sir Keir previously described as “intolerable”.
Israel’s latest ground operation in Gaza City, described by a UN official as “cataclysmic”, has forced hundreds of thousands of people to flee.
It is the latest Israeli offensive in the nearly two-year war which has seen much of the Palestinian territory’s population displaced, its infrastructure destroyed, and at least 65,208 people killed, according to Hamas-run health ministry figures.
Earlier this week, a United Nations commision of inquiry concluded Israel had committed genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, which Israel denounced as “distorted and false”.
Ministers have also highlighted the continued expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law, as a key factor in the decision to recognise Palestinian statehood.
Justice Secretary David Lammy, who was foreign secretary when recognition was proposed, cited the controversial E1 settlement project – which critics warn would put an end to hopes for a viable, contiguous Palestinian state – as well as violence from Israeli settlers in the West Bank.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas welcomed the UK’s recognition pledge when he visited Sir Keir earlier this month, with Downing Street saying both leaders had agreed Hamas should play no role in the future governance of Palestine.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said she wanted to see a two-state solution in the Middle East.
But she wrote in The Telegraph over the weekend: “It is obvious, and the US has been clear on this, that recognition of a Palestinian state at this time and without the release of the hostages, would be a reward for terrorism.”
Meanwhile, in an open letter to Sir Keir on Saturday, family members of some of the hostages taken by Hamas urged the prime minister not to take the step until the 48 still in Gaza, of whom 20 are thought to still be alive, had been returned.
The announcement of the forthcoming recognition had “dramatically complicated efforts to bring home our loved ones”, they wrote. “Hamas has already celebrated the UK’s decision as a victory and reneged on a ceasefire deal.”
Sources in government said ministers will be setting out next steps for sanctioning Hamas in the coming weeks.
During a state visit to the UK this week, US President Donald Trump also said he disagreed with recognition.
Sir Keir had set a deadline of the UN General Assembly meeting, which takes place this week, for Israel to take “substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza, agree to a ceasefire and commit to a long-term, sustainable peace, reviving the prospect of a two-state solution”.
He said in July: “With that solution now under threat, this is the moment to act.”
A number of other countries including Portugal, France, Canada and Australia have also said they will recognise a Palestinian state, while Spain, Ireland and Norway took the step last year.
Palestine is currently recognised by around 75% of the UN’s 193 member states, but has no internationally agreed boundaries, no capital and no army – making recognition largely symbolic.
The two-state solution refers to the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, with East Jerusalem as its capital. Israel currently occupies both the West Bank and Gaza, meaning the Palestinian Authority is not in full control of its land or people.
Recognising a Palestinian state has long been a cause championed by many within the Labour Party. The PM has been under mounting pressure to take a tougher stance on Israel, particularly from MPs on the left of his party.
Shortly before he gave his speech in July, more than half of Labour MPs signed a letter calling for the government to immediately recognise a Palestinian state.
