Iran must reach a deal with Western parties by late September or face renewed UN sanctions over its nuclear program.
The E3 grouping of Germany, France and the United Kingdom have moved to trigger the powerful “snapback” mechanism of UN sanctions over Iran’s nuclear program.
The snapback is a diplomatic tool that is part of a faltering October 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), under which signatories agreed to lift crippling international sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for Tehran agreeing to curbs on its nuclear activities.
If Iran and the E3 nations fail to reach an agreement within 30 days, all previously lifted sanctions on Iran under the 2015 deal would be reinstated.
Iran said that it will not alter its position in the nuclear dispute.
“We are not fans of sanctions, but this time too, the Iranian people will neither back down nor bow to pressure,” Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref told the ISNA news agency on Sunday.
A question of ‘national pride’
Aref questioned whether Germany, France and the UK have the legal authority to trigger the snapback mechanism.
“Of course, if the snapback is implemented, the necessary decisions will be taken accordingly,” Aref added, without providing details.
“Iran has built up this nuclear program … over decades, and has done so despite sanctions,” Cornelius Adebahr from the German Council on Foreign Relations told DW. He noted that national pride makes it difficult for Iran to abandon its enrichment capabilities.
Adebahr, a political scientist who has published several books on Iran, pointed out that some political forces in Iran are now demanding withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), in response to the activation of the snapback mechanism.
A corresponding draft law has already been submitted to Iran’s parliament.
“The draft law is on the agenda and will undergo the legal review and approval process next week,” lawmaker Hossein-Ali Haji-Deligani told the semi-official Iranian Tasnim news agency on Friday.
Iran suspended its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after Israel and the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities.
Europe is now demanding a full resumption of IAEA inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities and information on the whereabouts of Tehran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium.
In addition, Western states are accusing Tehran of violating UN Resolution 2231 by developing ballistic missiles.
The resolution, adopted in July 2015 as part of the nuclear agreement, explicitly calls on Iran “not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons.”
Officially, however, the Iranian government emphasizes that it does not seek nuclear weapons and has said its nuclear program serves exclusively civilian purposes.
The Islamic Republic is currently in a state of “strategic paralysis” and does not know which path to take, explained Iran expert Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin.
The expert on security and geopolitical issues in the Middle East and Central Eurasia suggested that the Iranian leadership “is leaning toward a diplomatic settlement.”
“After the 12-day war with Israel, its attitude has changed: The Islamic Republic has become aware of its own vulnerability and, at the same time, recognizes the economic risks that a return to UN sanctions would entail,” Azizi told DW.
Azizi said that the sanctions could put Iran in a position similar to that of Iraq in the years between the two Gulf Wars: a weakened, isolated government, plagued by internal crises.
“A withdrawal from the NPT in response could legitimize military attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities,” Azizi added.
“Important voices in Iran, such as Ali Akbar Salehi, former head of the Atomic Energy Agency, are now emphasizing that parliament has no authority to decide on a withdrawal from the NPT. He points out that the Supreme Leader must make this decision.”
‘It’s not about a nuclear agreement’
Washington is now demanding that Iran abandon its nuclear program, end its support for regional proxies, and limit its military capabilities.
“The US shows no interest in a new nuclear agreement,” said Aziz.
“In Washington, they seem convinced that they have already militarily contained the dangerous aspects of Iran’s nuclear program,” Aziz added.
“Washington’s conditions are conditions that are difficult for the Islamic Republic to accept. While the Europeans have activated the snapback mechanism, they have little with which to persuade Tehran to compromise.”
Aziz told DW that Iran is therefore trying to play for time and manage its crisis strategically — hoping to secure the support of Russia and China. The goal, he suggested, is for these two countries to block or at least delay the implementation of the sanctions.
However, Azizi emphasized that, based on the text of the resolution, Moscow and Beijing cannot prevent the activation of the snapback mechanism.
Source : https://www.dw.com/en/snapback-sanctions-expose-irans-diplomatic-dilemma/a-73837667
