President Donald Trump’s trade war policies are expected to bring about a 35% decline in cargo arriving at the Port of Los Angeles by next week as “essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased,” according to Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka.
Seroka’s warning came during the port’s board of harbor commissioners meeting on April 24, with the executive director saying that retailers and manufacturers typically put in orders to factories in Asia around three to four months in advance of shipments and that Trump’s 90-day pause on the broad “reciprocal” tariffs resulted in no “real difference” for businesses.
The Los Angeles Port head added on Thursday that U.S. exporters are also getting “hit hard” by retaliatory tariffs amid Trump’s trade war. Seroka said the sectors include agriculture, heavy-duty manufacturing and information technology services.
“U.S. ag exporters are having an especially challenging time, so much so that in March, China bought more soybeans from Brazil in one month than ever in their history,” Seroka said.
Meanwhile, major retailers have told Seroka that they have about a six- to eight-week supply of inventory but that “will quickly dry up.” The Los Angeles Port is the major point of entry for cargo ships from China and Southeast Asia into the U.S.
“United States consumers and manufacturers alike will find difficult decisions in the weeks and months to come if policies don’t change,” Seroka said.
The warnings from Seroka come amid continued back and forth over tariffs and possible deals between the U.S. and China. The uncertainty has led to a decrease in shipping volumes from China to North America, with cancellations currently at 50%, according to global logistics firm Flexport.
Trump Trade War: Recession By The Summer?
Meanwhile, asset management firm Apollo Global Management’s (APO) Chief Economist Torsten Slok on Sunday released a report outlining the timeline for Trump’s tariffs to result in empty shelves, layoffs in the trucking and retail sector and a recession this summer.
Trump announced his “liberation day” tariffs on April 2. It takes about 20 to 40 days for container ships to sail to the U.S. from China, according to Apollo. Slok estimates that container ships coming to U.S. ports could come to a stop by mid-May.
It then takes about 1-to-10 days of transit time for trucking/rail to bring goods from the ports to cities. Apollo Global Management predicts that by late May domestic freight demand will “come to a halt” and that there will be “empty shelves,” forcing retailers and others to deal with lower sales.
By early June, Slok forecasts there will be layoffs in the domestic freight and retail industries with a recession hitting the U.S. this summer.
The National Retail Federation, whose members include Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT) and others, forecast earlier this month that U.S. import cargo volume will fall at least 20% year over year in the second half of 2025 as U.S. companies pause orders from China.
Shipping Stocks And Retailers
Big retailers that rely on China-made goods — like Amazon (AMZN), Walmart and Target — are set to feel an impact from Trump’s trade war, as well as the slowdown in shipping.
Amazon reports first-quarter earnings on Thursday with Walmart’s Q1 financials coming on May 15. Target follows with first-quarter earnings and revenue on May 21. Amazon stock is down around 1.4% in April while Target stock has dropped 7.7%. Walmart shares have advanced more than 8%.
Container liners and logistics companies ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM) and XPO Logistics (XPO) are down 0.9% and 9.4%, respectively during April’s stock market action.
The 37 stocks in the IBD-tracked Transportation-Ship industry group have collectively declined 17% during 2025. That puts the sector at a weak No. 177 out of 197 ranked industries, with 1 being the best performer and 197 the worst.
Domestic freight company Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) is down 10% in April while peer ArcBest (ARCB) has declined 16.3% during stock market action in April.
Source : https://www.investors.com/news/trump-trade-war-difficult-decisions-as-china-shipments-cease/
