The war in Iran and a spat between two of the world’s most influential Americans has forced Giorgia Meloni to choose sides, potentially pushing the Italian prime minister to align herself with Europe’s center-right.
Donald Trump’s attacks on Pope Leo XIV— and a social media post depicting the US president as an AI-generated Jesus — proved to be the breaking point for Giorgia Meloni.
The Italian prime minister, head of the far-right Brothers of Italy party, has long been seen as someone who could wield influence over the right-wing Trump, a key but difficult ally.
But when the pope criticized the US-Israeli war against Iran and said the world was “being ravaged by a handful of tyrants,” and Trump unleashed a social media tirade in response, calling Leo “weak,” Meloni rushed to the pontiff’s defense.
Bearing in mind that more than half of Italians identify themselves as Catholic, Meloni said Monday that she considered Trump’s comments about the pope “unacceptable.” As head of the Catholic Church, she said it was “right and normal for [the pope] to call for peace and to condemn every form of war.”
Trump, who had previously considered Meloni “one of the real leaders of the world,” quickly lashed out and told an Italian newspaper that “she’s the one who’s unacceptable” and “no longer the same person.” This would potentially be bad news for the Italian prime minister, as she loses Trump’s ear and the influence that comes with it.
But instead, analysts said, Meloni may have used the quarrel between the pope and Trump to deliberately distance herself from an increasingly unpopular American president. A March poll by YouGov found that 80% of Italians had an unfavorable opinion of Trump — especially now with the Iran war leading to a steep rise in energy prices in Italy, which is heavily dependent on natural gas.
“There are elections in Italy next year and in Italy, too, the price at the pump will decide” who wins or loses, said Roberto D’Alimonte, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Florence. “Defending the pope was a smart thing to do, because the pope is a popular figure with her voters.”
Is Iran war shaping Meloni’s Trump policy?
According to a recent poll by Italian research institute SWG, nine in 10 Italians said they were quite worried about the impact of the Iran war on energy prices, while six in 10 said they were against the war with Iran.
Before the war, Italy imported around 10% of its natural gas from Qatar and was Europe’s largest importer of energy from the Gulf country. But the conflict and blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route, and Iran’s counterattacks on Qatar’s biggest gas refinery have forced Italy to look for alternatives, driving up electricity prices.
Leo Goretti, head of the Italian foreign policy program at the Istituto Affari Internazionali think tank in Rome, said the spike in energy prices has led to a palpable discontent in Meloni’s support base.
“Diesel price in Italy is more than €2 [$2.30] per liter. That has a massive impact on a number of social groups which are likely conservative and pro-Meloni,” he said. D’Alimonte agreed, pointing out that “people associate the higher bills and gasoline prices to Trump.”
Meloni’s breakup with Trump a long time coming
Meloni’s relationship with Trump has cooled significantly in recent months, especially since she spoke out against his threats to annex Greenland in January. Goretti said Trump’s ongoing backing for Israel in the Gaza conflict — in which tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed — and Meloni’s support for both Trump and Israel may have cost her politically, further contributing to the political breakup.
“I think the Italian public was quite angry about humanitarian violations in the Gaza war,” said Goretti. “They are not happy about the instability that Israel is unleashing in the Middle East.”
That sentiment may have contributed to Meloni’s defeat in a referendum in March on an unrelated judicial reform, said Goretti. The vote was widely seen as a referendum on her right-wing government and domestic popularity, and with 54% of Italians voting no it has compelled Meloni to see Trump as a liability.
Meloni is now trying to make amends, suspending a defense agreement with Israel and standing up to Trump.
“Meloni is a pragmatist,” said Julien Hoez, editor of the French Dispatch and a political analyst.
“There are various reasons she has decided to take on Trump — because he is unpopular in Italy, because Italians are reeling under high energy prices, because she wants to recover from the loss she faced in the referendum, and because GDP growth appears to be stagnating.
“However, with the controversy between Trump and the pope, she has an opening for a great win by defending the Catholic leader who resides within Italy.”
Meloni may now turn to Europe’s center-right
Goretti said there is a sense in Italy that Meloni’s relationship with Trump, cultivated since she first came to power in 2022, did not bring about any gains for her country.
“That a mediating role between the EU and Trump could help Italy, that was wishful thinking,” said Goretti. Now, he added, she may lean more toward aligning herself with center-right conservative governments rather than the far right.
Source : https://www.dw.com/en/italys-meloni-breaks-with-trump-over-war-in-iran-pope/a-76827787
