Analysts say the Islamic Republic is designed to endure such losses, and Ali Larijani’s replacement is likely to have a more hardline stance.
The death of Iranian security chief Ali Larijani strikes at the heart of the country’s leadership, but analysts said the Islamic Republic is designed to endure such losses.
They warn that his replacement is likely to be more hardline, a shift that could further escalate the conflict with the United States and Israel.
Larijani, 68, was among the most powerful figures in the Islamic Republic.
He was the right-hand man to the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and was expected to play a major role under the new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Many believed Larijani was running the country as US and Israeli strikes drove Iran’s leadership underground.
“Larijani has been the central player in maintaining the continuity of the Iranian government for several months, and in particular since June 2025,” said David Khalfa, co-director of the Middle East Observatory at the Jean Jaures Foundation think tank.
“He has effectively been the figure in charge of the regime’s survival, its regional policy and its defence strategy. This assassination also sends a message to the Iranian population. Larijani played an absolutely central role in the repression in January.”
A key figure in Iran’s foreign and domestic policy, Larijani spearheaded policies in four major areas – the current war, suppressing internal unrest, managing Tehran’s regional ties, as well as Iran’s nuclear programme and negotiations with the West.
“He was also widely viewed as a pragmatist, and so essentially, in killing Larijani, it may have also been not only an attempt to deal a body blow to the Iranian regime but also to ensure that whatever back-channelling diplomatic efforts to end the war may have been going on, that they come to an end,” said Dr James Dorsey, adjunct senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
SYSTEM BUILT TO WITHSTAND SHOCKS
Despite the scale of the loss, analysts said that Iran’s political and military system is designed to endure such blows, likely with succession plans in place.
The country has proven to be “very resilient” despite attacks by the US and Israel, said executive director of the Centre for Contemporary Arabic Studies Haizam Amirah-Fernandez.
“The Iranian political system, the political regime, the military has kept the capacity to respond, to act in a way with the chain of command,” he added.
Dr Dorsey noted that Iran has built its system to withstand blows to its leadership, adding that he believed the country was prepared for the security chief’s death.
“I think (Larijani) was definitely prepared. I have no doubt about it, and I also believe that his succession is prepared,” Dr Dorsey said.
He pointed to Larijani’s presence at a pro-government rally on the streets of Tehran in recent days, with no visible armed bodyguards.
“He could have been attacked at any given moment … but nonetheless he was there without bodyguards,” Dr Dorsey told CNA.
“And I think that’s something that’s noteworthy in terms of what the Iranians expected, and certainly what the Iranian leaders are willing to accept.”
He also noted reports of four layers of succession among senior officials, implemented to ensure the Iranian system’s survival.
“I have no doubt that (Larijani) was anticipating this, or, in any case, accepting that it was a possibility,” Dr Dorsey added.
This layered structure allows authority to be redistributed quickly when key figures are removed.
HARDLINE SHIFT LIKELY
Despite his unswerving commitment to the late leader’s absolute rule, Larijani was viewed as relatively pragmatic – he was open to diplomacy and was more measured in handling domestic opposition.
He was working to avert an attack on Iran until shortly before the war began.
“In my view, this issue is resolvable,” Larijani told Oman state television early this year, referring to the talks with the US. “If the Americans’ concern is that Iran should not move toward acquiring a nuclear weapon, that can be addressed.”
He was also reportedly Washington’s most favoured transitional candidate last year, according to CNN, citing a source familiar with private plans and discussions.
But Washington later denounced him for his role in crushing mass protests in January, and Israel turned its sights on him in early February.
Iran is likely to replace Larijani with someone with a more hardline stance, and the war could potentially escalate with power in the hands of more radical leaders, experts said.
“What we’ve seen certainly in the replacements of commanders of the military, the security services, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, is that those that replace those that have been assassinated are largely far more hardline,” Dr Dorsey said.
RISK OF ESCALATION
Dr Dorsey pointed out that there may also be a hardening of the lines on both sides of the war following the security chief’s death.
“You could see Israel, the United States, seeing this as a major body blow that sets the stage for trying to finish Iran off,” he said.
Already, Iran has retaliated for the assassination of its security chief, targeting Tel Aviv with missiles carrying cluster warheads, which are difficult to intercept.
Larijani’s death is also likely to lend more power to the more radical leaders and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, said Dr Mehran Kamrava, professor of government at Georgetown University Qatar.
“As an insider with deep connections within the Islamic Republic’s deep state and with impeccable revolutionary credentials, he would have been indispensable to any decision to end the current war,” Dr Kamrava told CNA.
Source : https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/ali-larijani-iran-security-chief-death-hardline-6000951
