Siddaramaiah’s 2005 expulsion from JD(S) after floating the Ahinda movement, followed by his 2006 entry into Congress with a group of JD(S) leaders, made him the face of the bloc.
If Siddaramaiah steps down as chief minister, the impact on Congress’s Ahinda vote bank will hinge on one question: did he create Ahinda or did he simply consolidate it? The answer could shape the party’s prospects in 2028 Assembly polls.
As Karnataka braces for a possible power transition, the larger political question is whether his exit will weaken Congress’ Ahinda base. Ahinda — minorities, Dalits and backward classes — has long been Congress’s core social coalition. Siddaramaiah did not invent it, but gave it political shape and leadership.
His 2005 expulsion from JD(S) after floating the Ahinda movement, followed by his 2006 entry into Congress with a group of JD(S) leaders, made him the face of the bloc. He became chief minister twice.
Siddaramaiah strengthened Ahinda by elevating his former JD(S) colleagues – Dr H C Mahadevappa, Satish Jarkiholi, Zameer Ahmed Khan and Byrathi Suresh, often overshadowing THE “original” Congress leaders including Dr G Parameshwara, P M Narendraswamy, H M Revanna, Roshan Baig and Tanveer Sait.
In doing so, he sustained Devaraj Urs’ social justice experiment of broad-basing OBC leadership while keeping Vokkaliga-Lingayat-Brahmin dominance in check, note party veterans.
His Ahinda politics helped Congress secure 43% vote share and 135 seats in 2023, including 21 of 36 SC seats and 14 of 15 ST seats.
But the victory was also shaped by Shivakumar’s organisational push, Lingayat anger against BJP after B S Yediyurappa’s exit as CM, the ‘big five’ guarantee schemes and Vokkaliga support shifting to Congress in anticipation of Shivakumar becoming CM.
“The Ahinda vote swing will depend on how Siddaramaiah handles his stepping down and how he aligns with the party in the next two years. His son is likely to be inducted into the Cabinet and his interests will be taken care of. In the last elections itself, non-dominant OBCs had started shifting towards BJP, and Congress win was largely due to Dalit vote, a marginal split in Lingayat vote and Vokkaliga votes,” said political analyst Dr Sandeep Shastri.
