Brahmaputra Power Play: Why China Can't Weaponise Water Against India

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Tuesday dismissed Pakistan’s suggestion that China could weaponise the Brahmaputra against India. Sarma informed Pakistan, that the river “grows in India, not shrinks”.

Pakistan on Tuesday suggested that China could weaponise the Brahmaputra against India if ‘India stopped the flow (Indus water) to Pakistan’. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma countered the claim with facts and figures.

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Tuesday countered Pakistan’s claims that China could weaponise the Brahmaputra by cutting off its flow to India, stating that the river “grows in India, not shrinks”. His response came after Rana Ihsaan Afzal, an aide to Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, drew parallels between the Indus Waters Treaty and a hypothetical Chinese blockade of the Brahmaputra.
“If India does something like this, they stop the flow to Pakistan, then China can also do the same thing. But if things like this happen, then the entire world will be in a war,” Afzal told Geo News.
CM Breaks Down The Numbers
However, geographical realities make Afzal’s warning largely impractical. As Sarma explained in a post on X, “China contributes only 30–35% of the Brahmaputra’s total flow — mostly through glacial melt and limited Tibetan rainfall. The remaining 65–70% is generated within India, thanks to: Torrential monsoon rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, and Meghalaya, Major tributaries like Subansiri, Lohit, Kameng, Manas, Dhansiri, Jia-Bharali, Kopili and additional inflows from the Khasi, Garo, and Jaintia Hills via rivers such as Krishnai, Digaru, and Kulsi.”

What If China Stops Brahmaputra Water to India?
A Response to Pakistan’s New Scare Narrative

After India decisively moved away from the outdated Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan is now spinning another manufactured threat:
“What if China stops the Brahmaputra’s water to India?”…

— Himanta Biswa Sarma (@himantabiswa) June 2, 2025

This is corroborated by experts who say that only 14% of the Brahmaputra’s flow exists before the river enters India. The rest — 86% — is generated within Indian territory, proving China’s limited control over the river’s discharge.

While China has greenlit construction of what would be the world’s largest hydroelectric dam on the river’s upper reaches in Tibet, its impact remains limited and seasonal. Sarma had flagged this concern earlier in January, stating, “We have already communicated that if this dam comes then the Brahmaputra ecosystem will become fragile and dry and then we will depend on the rainwater from Arunachal Pradesh and Bhutan.”

China’s dam plans are also fraught with its own risks. The Tibetan plateau is prone to seismic activity, making massive dam infrastructure dangerous for both upstream and downstream regions. Experts warn that dam failure — due to earthquake, sabotage, or structural faults — could unleash disaster across Arunachal Pradesh and Assam “in minutes”.

Meanwhile, India is pressing ahead with its own hydropower initiative — the 11,000 MW Siang Upper Multipurpose Project in Arunachal Pradesh — designed to enhance energy security and offer a strategic counterbalance to China’s projects. However, this too faces domestic challenges. Local communities oppose the project citing environmental and displacement concerns.

Source: https://www.timesnownews.com/india/brahmaputra-power-play-why-china-cannot-weaponise-water-against-india-article-151782167