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Afghanistan 2.0? Al-Qaeda’s ‘Anaconda Strategy’ Is Quietly Swallowing Mali

A slow and systematic jihadist takeover is underway in Mali, where Al-Qaeda-linked JNIM has built a shadow state that now dominates more than 70% of the country.

Al-Qaeda-linked militants tighten their ‘anaconda strategy’ in Mali, cutting off fuel routes and encircling key towns.

A slow, methodical jihadist takeover is unfolding in Mali – one that mirrors the Taliban’s return in Afghanistan.
In large parts of the Sahel nation, Al-Qaeda’s affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) is administering justice, collecting taxes, enforcing rules and squeezing the state in what analysts now call an “anaconda strategy”.
The shift has been years in the making.

Mali, once held up as a fragile but working democracy, has been vanquished to a point where only a handful of garrison towns remain firmly under state control. Elsewhere, the JNIM’s influence fully replaces – or shadows – the government.

And while global attention remains on Gaza, Ukraine or the South China Sea, the Sahel is witnessing one of the most significant territorial expansions by the Al Qaeda since 2001.
Sahel refers to the transitional region in North-Central Africa comprising of countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mauritania, and Niger. These countries face challenges like climate change, food insecurity, and political instability.
If Mali falls outright, it would be the first time since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover of Afghanistan, that an al-Qaeda affiliate captures and governs an entire country.

A Collapse Years In The Making

JNIM stepped into the vacuum created by the breakdown of Mali’s junta in 2022, creating a shadow government that locals often depend on. In many communities, their courts, tax collectors and armed patrols function more consistently than any state service.
By early 2025, over 70% of the region was either under jihadist domination or contested.
This year, the grip tightened further. In July, militants disrupted the fuel supply – nearly all of which comes through Senegal and Ivory Coast. In September, they blockaded key southern routes.
By October, the US Embassy told Americans to leave immediately, citing “terrorist attacks along national highways”.
In November, five Indian nationals were kidnapped, underscoring the deteriorating situation.
The jihadist takeover of Mali is destabilising its neighbours. Jihadist groups operate with impunity across Burkina Faso, Niger, Mauritania and parts of Algeria.
A cross-border jihadist “emirate” may have been unthinkable once. But it is becoming increasingly plausible.

Human Cost Of Takeover

Nearly two million Malians are displaced. Farming has collapsed. Girls’ education in many areas has stopped altogether. Aid groups warn that the country is undergoing a “slow motion Talibanisation”.
In capital Bamako, the junta strives to project strength through parades and media control, even as the countryside slips out of its reach.

What A JNIM-Run Mali Would Mean

If the insurgents gain complete control, Mali could become Al Qaeda’s most stable sanctuary in two decades – a vast territory with gold reserves, smuggling routes and a large population governed through coercion and local alliances.
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